Look, friends (and non-friends), I need to say a few words about "preparedness." I've gotten questions from list readers about where to get KI tablets, what to stock up on, etc. A kind of replay of Y2K. The odds of anything "really bad" hitting any particular reader of this list are small indeed. Even the WTC event which hit NYC only had a small chance of hitting any list members working or living in NYC. Preparedness, like insurance, is for "unlikely but serious" events. Take earthquake insurance, for example. Those of us who live here in California understand earthquakes: my first big one was being almost shaken out of bed in 1971 from a quake 100 miles to the south of me. Then a few more minor quakes, doing minor damage. And I was in Santa Cruz when the 1989 quake hit, killing about 75 statewide and doing billions in damage. And my brother was in the Northridge quake in '94, which in some ways was a more serious quake. A truly large quake, of 7.6-7.8 would cause very serious disruption. A quake of 8 or larger would kill perhaps hundreds of thousands and would be likely be "unrecoverable from." (Meaning, the best that could happen to survivors would be their evacuation out of the area to a fresh start in Missouri or Iowa or wherever. California would be too disrupted--freeways, rail, aquaducts, everything--for recovery within a lifetime.) So, how to prepare for this? I keep a pack loaded with supplies and clothing for several days. And at my house I have stored water (about 50 gallons immediately drinkable, and a Katadyn ceramic filter, and potentially a few hundred other gallons of water). Food. Medical supplies. Guns. And yet do I _expect_ an earthquake? No. But the costs of keeping these items is not great, and the benefits IF the unlikely happens are good. How does this relate to the war? A nuclear exchange is probably unlikely, just as it was unlikely in the 1960s. But could it happen? Yes. Especially between countries in the near east. Would I build a bomb shelter? No, and I haven't. Not even a fallout shelter. How about potassium iodide tablets (to "load" the thyroid)? I bought some from Nitro-Pak (www.nitro-pak.com) a couple of years ago. Inexpensive. "Better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it. My advice is to stock up to your level of comfort and paranoia. Don't buy dried food and stuff you wouldn't eat anyway, but if you go to a supermarket, buy some extra cans, boxes, etc. of whatever you normally eat. (Rice is cheap and billions of people live on it. Macaroni, boxes of cereal, etc. All are better than nothing.) If you don't already have a gun, I guess the messages over the last several years haven't been persuasive, so I won't start here. Of the threats to consider over the coming months, I happen to think the outbreak of a virulent plague-like disease, released deliberately, is more likely than a nuclear war affecting the U.S. directly. (Though a nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India, which could happen in this upcoming war, would have enormous effects on the U.S. Even "survivalist" effects.) This plague could be smallpox, bubonic plague, or a virulent influenza. Germ warfare research has been going on for several decades, despite public claims that such work was abandoned. Iraq had capabilities and may be lending support to others. The Russians had a major program to produce cannisters of "militarized smallpox." The world thought the smallpox critter had been completely eradicated, as it had "in the wild." But it lives on inside the facilities of Biopreparat, Fort Dedrick, and, perhaps, the suicide flasks of Al Qaida. The best defense against such plagues is _avoidance_. If you hear reports in coming weeks or months of large numbers of people showing up sick at emergency rooms, it's time to close the doors and windows and hunker down for as long as is possible. Standing in long lines to buy batteries and food and water is not the place to be. (If I hear of such reports, I _may_ risk one quick run to the nearest grocery store to stock up, expecting that most of the sheeple will have either heard nothing or not have yet panicked. And an outbreak in Atlanta or Chicago is not likely to hit other regions for a few more days...) Ask yourself what you would need to "ride it out" for at least a few weeks and you will know what you should be be buying before there are lines. Odds are pretty good that nothing this dire will happen. This is the nature of risk, insurance, and preparedness. But better to be prepared than to be helpless. --Tim May
Tim May wrote:
"unrecoverable from." (Meaning, the best that could happen to survivors would be their evacuation out of the area to a fresh start in Missouri or Iowa or wherever
Unfortunately, Iowa and Missouri lie near the New Madrid Fault. From: http://www.ceri.memphis.edu/public/facts_long.shtml : "The greatest earthquake risk east of the Rocky Mountains is along the New Madrid fault system. Damaging earthquakes are much less frequent than in California, but when they do occur, the damage can be far greater, due to the underlying geology. The New Madrid fault system, or the New Madrid seismic zone, is a series of faults beneath the continental crust in a weak spot known as the Reelfoot Rift. It cannot be seen on the surface. The fault system extends 150 miles southward from Cairo, Illinois through New Madrid and Caruthersville, Missouri, down through Blytheville, Arkansas to Marked Tree, Arkansas. It dips into Kentucky near Fulton and into Tennessee near Reelfoot Lake, and extends southeast to Dyersburg, Tennessee. It crosses five state lines, and crosses the Mississippi River in at least three places. The great New Madrid earthquake of 1811-12 was a series of quakes that happened over a three-month period. The main shocks, the three largest earthquakes, were estimated to be greater than magnitude 8.0 Aftershocks included two events around magnitude 8.0, five magnitude 7.7, ten magnitude 5.3, and eighty-nine estimated at magnitude 4.3. The entire fault system is believed to have ruptured in this series of earthquakes. Aftershocks were felt in the region for more than a year. This was the largest release of seismic energy in the continental United States. The only other larger event was the Great Alaska Earthquake, in 1964." Probably not going to be on anybodies' "top ten places to live" after being through a major quake in CA. -Neil Johnson
On Fri, 21 Sep 2001, Neil Johnson wrote:
Probably not going to be on anybodies' "top ten places to live" after being through a major quake in CA.
They'll move to Austin, lasty time I checked we were the least likely place in the entire US to have a quake. -- ____________________________________________________________________ Kill them all, take their land, and go there for vacation. Rage Against The Machine The Armadillo Group ,::////;::-. James Choate Austin, Tx /:'///// ``::>/|/ ravage@ssz.com www.ssz.com .', |||| `/( e\ 512-451-7087 -====~~mm-'`-```-mm --'- --------------------------------------------------------------------
At 06:12 PM 9/21/01 -0700, Tim May wrote:
Look, friends (and non-friends), I need to say a few words about "preparedness." I've gotten questions from list readers about where to get KI tablets, what to stock up on, etc. A kind of replay of Y2K.
The odds of anything "really bad" hitting any particular reader of this list are small indeed. Even the WTC event which hit NYC only had a small chance of hitting any list members working or living in NYC.
Some brief thoughts in response: * It's not just getting hit by an attack that we citydwellers may need to worry about, but the disruption afterward. It seems, based on news reports, that many thousands of New Yorkers were left without basic water-gas-electricity-phone service after last week's attacks. Water, food, warm clothes -- lucky it wasn't winter -- can be vital. Better than a Red Cross handout shelter. * Folks in DC are starting to think through this. My intern told me today he has a gas mask (not new, he's had it a while). It's sorta a nervous joke -- echo of Y2K -- but as soon as there's another attack anywhere, folks in DC and NYC will get serious real fast. Biochemwomdnuke attack and all bets are off. * I have family in NYC who were out of the country during the attacks. Now they're back, and they say they're not as willing to live in NYC permanently. Suburbia is looking far more attractive. * Aimee posted something in the last week or so that was comprehensible for once (I've since lost the post), which was a URL for a folding plastic gas-mask with a charcoal filter. I recall it didn't seem designed for chemattacks; it would be interesting to know what it could filter. * The Washington City Paper has a horrific cover story this week on the city's beyond-pathetic response to Tuesday's attacks: http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/cover/cover.html
Even before the fire at the crippled Pentagon across the Potomac had been extinguished, frightening shortcomings in the District's emergency preparedness were laid bare. Communications broke down, and key District leaders scrambled to exchange information via e-mail and pagers. The fire department had scant reserve equipment, a single hazardous-materials unit, and no search-and-rescue units available to dispatch. There was no master terrorism-response plan in place, so agency heads reached for whatever was available on the nearest shelfwhich for some meant Y2K plans and, for the fire department, a 1968 deployment guideline drafted in response to the riots following the assassination of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.
* Based on this kind of report, you've got to wonder what would happen if there were biochemwomdnuke attacks. I note this WOMD is coming up a bit more on the news than last week; part of it may be the news networks looking for another story. Or it could be that DC-NYC city dwellers are a bit more worried, and what they're worried about is reflected on the air. * If we knew what we know now and were building a terrorist-resistant society, we could. Not terrorist-proof, but resistant. No high buildings, no large underground complexes, very spread out, transportation perhaps based on cars, bicycles and light rail. Airports far away from city centers, ala Denver and Pittsburgh, to avoid the problem that still-not-open Reagan National airport is having, and other airports like LaGuardia, Logan, and SF could have. The problem is that we already have a terrorist-prone society, or at least terrorist-vulnerable, and instead of rebuilding and "flattening" our vertical construction, we're trying to terrorist-proof it. -Declan
From Declan:
:>Even before the fire at the crippled Pentagon across the Potomac had been :>extinguished, frightening shortcomings in the District's emergency :>preparedness were laid bare. Communications broke down, and key District :>leaders scrambled to exchange information via e-mail and pagers. The fire :>department had scant reserve equipment, a single hazardous-materials unit, :>and no search-and-rescue units available to dispatch. There was no master :>terrorism-response plan in place, so agency heads reached for whatever was :>available on the nearest shelfwhich for some meant Y2K plans and, for the :>fire department, a 1968 deployment guideline drafted in response to the :>riots following the assassination of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. ---------------- I've been hearing about the budget for the CIA/NSA/etc. defense budgets of numbers like 30 billion - B I L L I O N - at the same time that I hear about how their technology is outmoded, outdated, that they're all ignorant of useful knowledge of the enemy (like how to communicate in their language), that they are under-manned, etc. Considering all the tax money which has been spent by these and other departments for useless symbolic projects which accomplish nothing, I am just taken aback at how the important things which are truly useful, especially at a time like this, that "infrastructure" which was the big buzzword some time ago, has been neglected. There are weights which fall upon you; then there are sinking holes which pull you down. Keep pouring that money into that sieve, y'all. .. Blanc
On Friday, September 21, 2001, at 08:44 PM, Declan McCullagh wrote:
* It's not just getting hit by an attack that we citydwellers may need to worry about, but the disruption afterward. It seems, based on news reports, that many thousands of New Yorkers were left without basic water-gas-electricity-phone service after last week's attacks. Water, food, warm clothes -- lucky it wasn't winter -- can be vital. Better than a Red Cross handout shelter.
* Folks in DC are starting to think through this. My intern told me today he has a gas mask (not new, he's had it a while). It's sorta a nervous joke -- echo of Y2K -- but as soon as there's another attack anywhere, folks in DC and NYC will get serious real fast. Biochemwomdnuke attack and all bets are off.
As I said, the odds are that not much will happen...for a while. In a few months, after nothing has happened, these folks now worried will be claiming they knew all along that nothing would happen. (Nothing happened, therefore nothing _could_ have happened, the logic of the Monday morning quarterback.) But I'll bet a lot of the NYC elite spend more time at their homes in the Hamptons and in the country, even as winter comes on. They'll make sure to be in NYC for the galas (but not the big ones, the ones that might be targets).
* I have family in NYC who were out of the country during the attacks. Now they're back, and they say they're not as willing to live in NYC permanently. Suburbia is looking far more attractive.
* Aimee posted something in the last week or so that was comprehensible for once (I've since lost the post), which was a URL for a folding plastic gas-mask with a charcoal filter. I recall it didn't seem designed for chemattacks; it would be interesting to know what it could filter.
Well, I posted about the EVAC-U8 mask/hood, with a charcoal filter. Available from the usual sources, like Nitro-Pak and Botach. Probably sold out now, though. Useful in fires, but also any noxious fume situation...for about 10-20 minutes. Any attack with VX or similar nerve gas would kill tens of thousands fairly quickly. Gas masks of no use, due to lack of coverage of all exposed skin, and leakage. Gas masks mainly useful for mustard gas, that sort of thing. Preston's "The Cobra Event" is a pretty good novel about releasing a virus in crowded cities. This was of course the novel that scared Clinton into starting a series of reviews of biochemical terrorism plans.
* The Washington City Paper has a horrific cover story this week on the city's beyond-pathetic response to Tuesday's attacks: http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/cover/cover.html
Something that is more of a "Towering Inferno" issue than a terrorism issue is the complete absence of any firefighting efforts with the WTC. Yeah, I know about the 300 firefighters killed trying to evacuate people. But where were the aerial water- and foam-spraying aircracraft? Where were the choppers landing on the roof to pluck off those who got to the roof? Nothing. It's apparent that the only plan to fight this fire was for the sophisticated sprinkler system to do its job. (Probably nothing could have dealt with the tons of aviation fuel dumped inside the buildings, but, still, the absence of any aerial fire-suppression efforts pretty much tells us what "The Towering Inferno" told us 25 years ago: tall buildings, taller than about 30 stories, are "on their own.")
* Based on this kind of report, you've got to wonder what would happen if there were biochemwomdnuke attacks. I note this WOMD is coming up a bit more on the news than last week; part of it may be the news networks looking for another story. Or it could be that DC-NYC city dwellers are a bit more worried, and what they're worried about is reflected on the air.
The planning over many years, the sleeper agents, and the coordinated element of surprise tells us that the next attack will NOT be with airliners. The surprise is lost, the planes will be shot down (if there's time...I still think a plane could be diverted from an airport into a crowded stadium near the airport faster than fighters could be scrambled), the pilots will shoot back, etc. The fact that this attack was several years in the making tells us that the _other_ cells could in fact be preparing releases of anthrax, or nerve gas, or even smallpox. The AUM cult made their own nerve gas, more than once, so Al Qaida has had years to do even better. And we know how easy it is to make anthrax cultures. Many ways to do it. Pellets lobbed with slingshots into a NYC "Parade for the Heroes." 40,000 people dying of anthrax. A few cannisters of VX fired with a mortar. A football stadium with 60,000 fans. And a live television audience seeing the convulsions begin...
* If we knew what we know now and were building a terrorist-resistant society, we could. Not terrorist-proof, but resistant. No high buildings, no large underground complexes, very spread out, transportation perhaps based on cars, bicycles and light rail. Airports far away from city centers, ala Denver and Pittsburgh, to avoid the problem that still-not-open Reagan National airport is having, and other airports like LaGuardia, Logan, and SF could have. The problem is that we already have a terrorist-prone society, or at least terrorist-vulnerable, and instead of rebuilding and "flattening" our vertical construction, we're trying to terrorist-proof it.
Soft targets. Talked about on this list, in other fora, for many years. Dean Ing wrote a (not so great) novel with this title some years back. Anyway, Declan and I have talked about this issue many times. I live on the coast, with nothing upwind of me except the Pacific Ocean. (I actually live about 4-5 miles inland, but same difference...just lightly populated residential areas due west of me.) Partly it's to escape the ant heap of cities (Silicon Valley was too crowded for me, and it's by no means a "city"). Partly for other reasons. I certainly like having my couple of acres on top of a hill, with a defensible perimeter. Other people move even further out into the country.... Being somewhat of a worrier, even a paranoid, I can't say I see things getting any better over time. The "degrees of freedom" of our multi-dimensional society mean that someone will always be pissed off and ready to fight. And there are many points of attack. Kill Bin Laden and he's a martyr for a hundred others...some of who may already be blending into Pakistani society. (And Pakistan will be our new best friend, so many of these sleepers will get plenty of chances to visit the U.S....) I'm rambling here, so I'll stop. --Tim May
At 09:45 PM 9/21/01 -0700, Tim May wrote:
Any attack with VX or similar nerve gas would kill tens of thousands fairly quickly. Gas masks of no use, due to lack of coverage of all exposed skin, and leakage. Gas masks mainly useful for mustard gas, that sort of thing.
Leakage yes, but I think a lot of people get sick or die (eg in a subway attack) because of inhaling the gas phase. Of course if you touch the liquid you're toast. I'd think an alkali decontaminizing layer in the filter would help with the nerve agents.
Preston's "The Cobra Event" is a pretty good novel about releasing a virus in crowded cities. This was of course the novel that scared Clinton into starting a series of reviews of biochemical terrorism plans.
Remember that *2* weeks ago some jokester flew (landed :-) an ultralight on the Statue of Liberty?
A few cannisters of VX fired with a mortar. A football stadium with 60,000 fans. And a live television audience seeing the convulsions begin...
A lot would die just from the panic.
on Sat, Sep 22, 2001 at 08:08:06AM -0700, David Honig (honig@sprynet.com) wrote:
At 09:45 PM 9/21/01 -0700, Tim May wrote:
Any attack with VX or similar nerve gas would kill tens of thousands fairly quickly. Gas masks of no use, due to lack of coverage of all exposed skin, and leakage. Gas masks mainly useful for mustard gas, that sort of thing.
Leakage yes, but I think a lot of people get sick or die (eg in a subway attack) because of inhaling the gas phase. Of course if you touch the liquid you're toast. I'd think an alkali decontaminizing layer in the filter would help with the nerve agents.
You fail to understand.
Nerve gas is absorbed through the skin. A containment suit is required,
a gas mask, alkali or otherwise, is worthless of itself.
Peace.
--
Karsten M. Self
On Sat, 22 Sep 2001, Karsten M. Self wrote:
Nerve gas is absorbed through the skin. A containment suit is required, a gas mask, alkali or otherwise, is worthless of itself.
Indeed. Physical properties of some common nerve agents: http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1018.5/MR1018.5.appb.html Specifically VX: Boiling point (0C, 760 mm Hg) 298.4 (calculated), with decomposition Vapor pressure (mm Hg) 0.0007 at 200 Volatility (mg/m3) 10.5 at 250C (1/2000 as volatile as sarin)
On Friday, September 21, 2001, at 08:44 PM, Declan McCullagh wrote:
* The Washington City Paper has a horrific cover story this week on the city's beyond-pathetic response to Tuesday's attacks: http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/cover/cover.html
Even before the fire at the crippled Pentagon across the Potomac had been extinguished, frightening shortcomings in the District's emergency preparedness were laid bare. Communications broke down, and key District leaders scrambled to exchange information via e-mail and pagers. The fire department had scant reserve equipment, a single hazardous-materials unit, and no search-and-rescue units available to dispatch. There was no master terrorism-response plan in place, so agency heads reached for whatever was available on the nearest shelfwhich for some meant Y2K plans and, for the fire department, a 1968 deployment guideline drafted in response to the riots following the assassination of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.
This confusion and chaos was pretty much anticipated by Y2K worriers: had anything disrupted transport or communications, D.C. looked to be in bad shape. (I recall comparisons made to Montgomery County, which had some problems with emergency systems, but seemed much better prepared. It's also surprising that an attack on the Pentagon, across the river, triggered chaos inside D.C. per se. A friend of mine thinks NYC may actually be a target a second time around: moving vans or other large trucks loaded with explosives and detonated inside the Holland and other tunnel(s). (I think there was a Sylvester Stallone movie which I never saw about a similar plan..."Daylight" was the name, I think. Interestingly, Hollywood usually has the hero stopping the timer at the 4-second mark, near the movie's end. Like diverting the asteroids and comets. Like stopping the Andromeda Strain from escaping. When a nuke _does_ go off, as in "True Lies," it's several miles away and only produces some suntans. Reality is not so antiseptic.) --Tim May
On Fri, 21 Sep 2001, Tim May wrote:
near the movie's end. Like diverting the asteroids and comets. Like stopping the Andromeda Strain from escaping. When a nuke _does_ go off,
Sorry, but your memory is gone. They didn't stop it from escaping. That(!) was the whole point of the movie. All the plans, all the technology, the unknown defeated them and rain dumping the alien organism into the sea where it was killed by the appropriate pH. Simple blind luck. (It's out on DVD for about $15) -- ____________________________________________________________________ Kill them all, take their land, and go there for vacation. Rage Against The Machine The Armadillo Group ,::////;::-. James Choate Austin, Tx /:'///// ``::>/|/ ravage@ssz.com www.ssz.com .', |||| `/( e\ 512-451-7087 -====~~mm-'`-```-mm --'- --------------------------------------------------------------------
On Fri, 21 Sep 2001, Tim May wrote:
(I think there was a Sylvester Stallone movie which I never saw about a similar plan..."Daylight" was the name, I think. Interestingly, Hollywood usually has the hero stopping the timer at the 4-second mark,
If I remember correctly, it's an accidental explosion, not a bomb. The tunnel actually does collapse. (http://movie-reviews.colossus.net/movies/d/daylight.html mentions this) The movie is about Stallone's attempt to rescue people from inside a collapsing tunnel. Naturally he more or less succeeds. A cabbie a few days ago mentioned something about a 2.5 hour wait to get through tunnels; he claimed they were searching *all* the cars. I don't know if this is still in effect. I know that my roommate and I made it out of the city through a tunnel, without being stopped, last Friday. -David
participants (9)
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Blanc -
David Honig -
Declan McCullagh -
dmolnar -
Eugene Leitl -
Jim Choate -
Karsten M. Self -
Neil Johnson -
Tim May