Hadn't heard this was malicious ... you have a reference?

The fourth failure turned out not to be a cable cut, just some kind of equipment power problem. Certainly once the third cut happened, things look pretty suspicious even if they don't turn out deserve it. And there are different kinds of terrorists out there - the ones that wear government uniforms (or wear cheap suits but work for governments) don't always take the credit themselves. At 07:35 PM 2/4/2008, Sarad AV wrote:

'terrorists' take credit and are proud of their actions. nothing of that kind has happened yet. I guess that satellite communication is another alternative.

Satellites have very limited bandwidth compared to fiber. They may be ok for countries that don't have useful infrastructure, like Iraq, Afghanistan, and most of Africa, but they don't begin to replace the internet or private network connectivity that was on the fiber systems that were cut; I don't know how big the fourth cable was.

On Tue, Feb 05, 2008 at 01:25:48AM -0500, H. Lally Singh wrote:

The latency will also keep you out of xbox live.

Cut-through routing through a LEO constellation would have the latency of fiber, or better. Of course, you could take out the whole lot of them with a few tons of ball bearings... -- Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> http://leitl.org ______________________________________________________________ ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.ativel.com http://postbiota.org 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE

Um, thats *five* cuts. And not random cuts either - they are specifically targetting both sides of the rings. This is someone who truly understands the tech - they are not just cutting random cables, they are cutting the right cables in the right sequence. I have been having an offline talk with a small group since this started, and none of us believed it was "random" after cut #4, and I am pretty certain everyone of us believes it's a pro. The question is *who*? The parche is in fact decomm'd (one of the group checked on it's pyhsical status); and there are only two countries suspected of having the required type of sub (Israel and Russia) besides the US. I would have thought Israel but for the heavy targetting of French property, and I cant find any reason for it to be Russia other than there is nobody else. Of course, I dont see what the various spook facilities do, so who knows, maybe everyone has sea-floor open to the water cable subs docking these days? -- Yours, J.A. Terranson sysadmin_at_mfn.org 0xBD4A95BF What religion, please tell me, tells you as a follower of that religion to occupy another country and kill its people? Please tell me. Does Christianity tell its followers to do that? Judaism, for that matter? Islam, for that matter? What prophet tells you to send 160,000 troops to another country, kill men, women, and children? You just can't wear your religion on your sleeve or just go to church. You should be truthfully religious. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad On Fri, 8 Feb 2008, Tyler Durden wrote:

Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2008 15:21:26 -0500 From: Tyler Durden To: Bill Stewart , cypherpunks@al-qaeda.net Subject: RE: undersea cable cuts

There's been lots of net speculation about maliciousness, but for me the odds of 3/4 failures of undersea cables in such a relatively small area and over such a short amount of time is extremely suspicious, particularly given how robust such cables are. (ie, there's maybe a dozen in the whole world at any one time, over millions of route miles).

Whether these are JbT-type terrorists is, I think, doubtful given the revenues traveling over these things and particularly how ineffective the cuts were. The cuts certainly appeared to me to be attempts to get a working+protect sides of fiber rings by people who didn't have access to that level of detail about how the rings are deployed over the wavelength/fiber/cable pairs.

-TD

...

Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2008 22:05:07 -0800e> To: cypherpunks@al-qaeda.net> From: bill.stewart@pobox.com> Subject: Re: undersea cable cuts> > > Hadn't heard this was malicious ... you have a reference?> > The fourth failure turned out not to be a cable cut,> just some kind of equipment power problem.> > Certainly once the third cut happened,> things look pretty suspicious even if they don't turn out deserve it.> And there are different kinds of terrorists out there -> the ones that wear government uniforms (or wear cheap suits> but work for governments) don't always take the credit themselves.> > At 07:35 PM 2/4/2008, Sarad AV wrote:> >'terrorists' take credit and are proud of their actions.> >nothing of that kind has happened yet.> >I guess that satellite communication is another alternative.> > Satellites have very limited bandwidth compared to fiber.> They may be ok for countries that don't have useful infrastructure,> like Iraq, Afghanistan, and most of Africa,> but they don't begin to replace the internet or private network connectivity> that was on the fiber systems that were cut;> I don't know how big the fourth cable was.

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I have read several posts on this both here and on other lists, the news seems not to be reporting much about this and the conspiracy theories abound. Today however, I read a rather interesting piece on The Economist which I found interesting enough to post here for comment... According to them, this is just a well publicized string of coincidences and in one case, one cable was taken down by the operators themselves. The assertion that these cables fail relatively often, yet go unreported is also interesting to me. The other interesting statement is that this did not have a massive impact on Iran's internet infrastructure. The latter would have the impact of nullifying many theories, if true. What do folks here think? --Gabe http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10653... WHEN two undersea cables were damaged, apparently by ships' anchors, five miles north of Alexandria on January 30th, it seemed like a reminder of the fragility of the internet. The cablesbone owned by FLAG Telecom, a subsidiary of India's Reliance Group, the other (SEA-ME-WE 4) by a consortium of 16 telecoms firmsbcarry almost 90% of the data traffic that goes through the Suez canal. When the connections failed, they took with them almost all internet links between Europe and the Gulf and South Asia. Egypt lost 70% of its internet connectivity immediately. More than half of western India's outbound capacity crashed, messing up the country's outsourcing industry. Over the next few days, as cable operators sought new routes, 75m people from Algeria to Bangladesh saw internet links disrupted or cut off. But when, on February 1st, another of FLAG Telecom's cables was damaged, this time on the other side of the Arabian peninsula, west of Dubai, the story started to change. As an internet user known as spyd3rweb wrote on digg.com, b 1 cable = an accident; 2 cables = a possible accident; 3 cables = deliberately sabotaged.b The conspiracy theories started to take wing. b We need to ponder the possibilityb, declared a posting on defensetech.org, b that these cable cuts were intentional malicious acts. And even if the first incident was just an innocent but important accident, the second could well be a terrorist copycat event.b Or American villainy, said others. A user called Blakey Rat reported that b the US navy was at one point technically able to tap into undersea fibre-optic cables using a special chamber mounted on a support submarine.b A website called the Galloping Beaver asked, b where is the USS Jimmy Carter?bba nuclear attack submarine which had apparently vanished. The notion that something spookier than ships' anchors was to blame gained ground when Egypt's transport ministry said it had studied video footage of the sea lanes where the cables had been, and no ships had crossed the line of the breakage for 12 hours before and after the accident (the area is, in fact, off limits to shipping). Suspicion spread when yet another cablebbetween Qatar and the United Arab Emiratesbwent down on February 3rd. b Beyond the realm of coincidence!b said a user of ArabianBusiness.com. In fact, the fourth break was unsuspicious: the network was taken down by its operator because of a power failure. But by that time the conspiracists were in overdrive. Slashdot.org, a discussion board, said Iran had lost all internet access on February 1st. b A communications disruption can mean only one thingbinvasion,b said bigdavex, quoting a line from a b Star Warsb film. Bloggers in Pakistan, having recovered from their disruption, returned with a vengeance. The broken cables, they said, forced a delay in the opening of an oil bourse in Tehran; this would have led, claimed pkpolitics.com, to the mass selling of dollars b which would have instantly crashed [the American] economyb. Marcus Salek of New World Order 101.com (nwo101.com) added that b President Putin ordered the Russian air force to take immediate action to protect the Russian nation's vital undersea cables.b There is just one small problem: Iran's internet connectivity was never lost. Todd Underwood and Earl Zmijewski of Renesys, an internet-monitoring firm, reported that four-fifths of the 695 networks with connections in Iran were unaffected. Most of the other theories dissolve under analysis, too. Perhaps the American navy can bug fibre-optic cables but it's not clear how. A report for the European Parliament found in 2000 that b optical-fibre cables do not leak radio frequency signals and cannot be tapped using inductive loops. [Intelligence agencies] have spent a great deal of money on research into tapping optical fibres, reportedly with little success.b It may be rare for several cables to go down in a week, but it can happen. Global Marine Systems, a firm that repairs marine cables, says more than 50 cables were cut or damaged in the Atlantic last year; big oceans are criss-crossed by so many cables that a single break has little impact. What was unusual about the damage in the Suez canal was that it took place at a point where two continents' traffic is borne along only three cables. More are being laid. For the moment, there is only one fair conclusion: the internet is vulnerable, in places, but getting more robust.

Cable cutting, if that's what it is, impairs two domains: data harvesting (as there is less to harvest) and cost/quality of the affected communications. These two domains cannot possibly belong to the same side of the Conflict. I find affecting data harvesting to be improbable, so it's either: - done by the affected principalities themselves as a neat way to limit undesired communications for their own subjects; - or a spook agency doing a live "what if comms go away" testing in irrelevant parts of the world; - or a previously undiscovered natural phenomenon (mutant laser-head sharks.)

The spies regularly spout that fiber has made eavesdropping more difficult, along with encryption, the out of control Internet, the ease of transborder evasion of laws governing global laws on privacy and national security.

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On Feb 10, 2008, at 6:12 AM, Tyler Durden wrote:

I suspect we have some new mode of fiber optic mujahadeen that are trying to hurt or seriously fuck up money flows into the middle east, but dont quote me on that. How did they do it? Dont know, but remember they were resourceful enough to figure out how to turn a 727 into a very effective smart missile.

So what kind of tools would they use to locate & take out the fiber? Would a snorkel & sharpened boat anchor do the trick? -- It must be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage, than the creation of a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institutions and merely lukewarm defenders in those who would gain by the new ones. -- Machiavelli

Tyler Durden wrote:

Tapping an underwater cable is far, far harder, but the NSA is known by fiber guys to have at least two of the very expensive and very specialized subs necessary.

I was under the impression that there were regeneration nodes every so many tends of KM (essentially receiver/emitter pairs, with a bit of logic in the middle to reshape the pulses to keep them clean) and always assumed at least some of those were equipped with additional logic to allow a suitably equipped sub to simply clamp an inductive coil around the node and "ask" the node to emit signal in EM form so the sub could listen in... how many of the bundled fibres you could that for in parallel would be a design issue though, albeit a minor one (using a clamp-on coil surrounding the entire node, you could pretty much use the entire radio spectrum as bandwidth and assign one frequency per repeater; I suspect you would need to supply power inductively too though, given the power requirements for an "active" node of this time would go though the roof compared to normal operation.)

Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2008 21:14:02 -0600> From: measl@mfn.org> To: DaveHowe@gmx.co.uk> CC: cypherpunks@al-qaeda.net> Subject: Re: undersea cable cuts> > On Sun, 10 Feb 2008, Dave Howe wrote:> > > Tyler Durden wrote:> > > Tapping an underwater cable is far, far harder, but the NSA is known by> > > fiber> > > guys to have at least two of the very expensive and very specialized subs> > > necessary.> > > > I was under the impression that there were regeneration nodes every so many> > tends of KM (essentially receiver/emitter pairs, with a bit of logic in the> > middle to reshape the

No real ruminations are needed on these subjects: They're known and by no means secret. Regenerators are mostly gone now, both on land and undersea, replaced by the optical fiber amplifier. Undersea cables carry electrical power through a lining in their sheeth. An OTDR can't see past a traditional regenerator: The fiber span is terminated. (It also can't see past an optical fiber amplifier because of the isolators that keep the ASE from lasing inside the amplifier.) Tapping an optical fiber is absolutely trivial, more trivial than tapping a (copper) cable carrying an electrical signal. This isn't inside inside knowledge, even the guys in the trucks know it. Tapping an undersea optical cable, however, is a completely different matter, and it's VERY difficult, though routinely done by NSA, etc... Undersea cables do occasionally break, but the net-quoted statistic of approximately 12 breaks at any one time throughout the world is entirely misleading: There are millions of route-miles spanning the Atlantic, the Pacific and everywhere else. This means that the odds of three or four breaks in a small area are practically zero. They are designed to be extremely resilient, and this design choice has been quite successful. A simple anchor (even from a large ship) is not in general going to cut a cable. -TD pulses to keep them clean) > > On land, yes. At sea? To be honest, I never really considered it... > Thinking about it though, my guess would be no. I base that on several > things:> > (a) The location of the break is determined via OTDR. How can you know > where your reflection originates if you have regen stations?> > (b) Power requirements are very significant at regens: where does all this > happy juice come from at the floor of the sea?> > (c) Regen stations would introduce elevated failure rates that are not > seen (by me. YMMV).> > > and always assumed at least> > some of those were equipped with additional logic to allow a suitably equipped> > sub to simply clamp an inductive coil around the node and "ask" the node to> > emit signal in EM form so the sub could listen in... > > I find this hard to buy into for all of the above, *plus* the difficulty > of shoving multiple fibers through such an inductive device. I simply > dont believe it possible.> > > how many of the bundled> > fibres you could that for in parallel would be a design issue though, albeit a> > minor one (using a clamp-on coil surrounding the entire node, you could pretty> > much use the entire radio spectrum as bandwidth and assign one frequency per> > repeater; I suspect you would need to supply power inductively too though,> > given the power requirements for an "active" node of this time would go though> > the roof compared to normal operation.)> > Exactly. Even if they try to multiplex on top of themselves, there just > no way.> > As has been pointed out by many (even myself I think), these breaks are > clearly an organized event, but of unknown purpose. as was astutely > pointed out, the guys who would want to do the cutting are separate from > and antithetical to, the guys who want to do the monitoring. Also, the > guys who want to do the monitoring dont need to be breaking cables to do > it - they bring out the Jimmy Carter (now that her sister is truly > mothballed) and they do it in a nice dry lab on the ocean floor, with a > good cup of hot coffe fresh from nuclear irradiation (er, "heating").> > I see no point to these acts, but neither can I deny that these acts > *must* have been deliberate. And I do not pretend to know what everyone > else could possibly be considering as motives. I do particularly like the > hypothesis put forward about testing the responses of places nobody > otherwise cares about, but thats just the shit disturber in me, I'm sure > ;-)> > //Alif> > --> Yours,> J.A. Terranson> sysadmin_at_mfn.org> 0xBD4A95BF> > > What religion, please tell me, tells you as a follower of that religion> to occupy another country and kill its people? Please tell me. Does> Christianity tell its followers to do that? Judaism, for that matter?> Islam, for that matter? What prophet tells you to send 160,000 troops> to another country, kill men, women, and children? You just can't wear> your religion on your sleeve or just go to church. You should be> truthfully religious.> > Mahmoud Ahmadinejad _________________________________________________________________ Helping your favorite cause is as easy as instant messaging. You IM, we give. http://im.live.com/Messenger/IM/Home/?source=text_hotmail_join

Yeah, I'm top osting: it's 2am and I'm dead - sue me. Having been ana active "operator" of undersea cables, I can assure you that they do occasionally break (boat anchors, floor movements, etc.), but only very, very rarely. To suggest that a break is not something unusual enough for even the operators to discount until every other possible thing has been checked si just plain false. In the 4 years I had direct, personal access to systems controlling & monitoring several undersea cables, I have never seen one cut or otherwise fatally damaged. I have seen a single leak which took out a few fibers, and required about 5 weeks to get a ship to repair. That these can be discounted as anything but planned and coordinated acts is impossible. //Alif -- Yours, J.A. Terranson sysadmin_at_mfn.org 0xBD4A95BF What religion, please tell me, tells you as a follower of that religion to occupy another country and kill its people? Please tell me. Does Christianity tell its followers to do that? Judaism, for that matter? Islam, for that matter? What prophet tells you to send 160,000 troops to another country, kill men, women, and children? You just can't wear your religion on your sleeve or just go to church. You should be truthfully religious. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad On Sat, 9 Feb 2008, Gabriel Rocha wrote:

Date: Sat, 9 Feb 2008 11:14:55 -0500 From: Gabriel Rocha To: cypherpunks@al-qaeda.net Subject: Re: undersea cable cuts

I have read several posts on this both here and on other lists, the news seems not to be reporting much about this and the conspiracy theories abound. Today however, I read a rather interesting piece on The Economist which I found interesting enough to post here for comment...

According to them, this is just a well publicized string of coincidences and in one case, one cable was taken down by the operators themselves. The assertion that these cables fail relatively often, yet go unreported is also interesting to me. The other interesting statement is that this did not have a massive impact on Iran's internet infrastructure. The latter would have the impact of nullifying many theories, if true. What do folks here think? --Gabe

http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10653...

WHEN two undersea cables were damaged, apparently by ships' anchors, five miles north of Alexandria on January 30th, it seemed like a reminder of the fragility of the internet. The cablesbone owned by FLAG Telecom, a subsidiary of India's Reliance Group, the other (SEA-ME-WE 4) by a consortium of 16 telecoms firmsbcarry almost 90% of the data traffic that goes through the Suez canal. When the connections failed, they took with them almost all internet links between Europe and the Gulf and South Asia.

Egypt lost 70% of its internet connectivity immediately. More than half of western India's outbound capacity crashed, messing up the country's outsourcing industry. Over the next few days, as cable operators sought new routes, 75m people from Algeria to Bangladesh saw internet links disrupted or cut off.

But when, on February 1st, another of FLAG Telecom's cables was damaged, this time on the other side of the Arabian peninsula, west of Dubai, the story started to change. As an internet user known as spyd3rweb wrote on digg.com, b 1 cable = an accident; 2 cables = a possible accident; 3 cables = deliberately sabotaged.b The conspiracy theories started to take wing.

b We need to ponder the possibilityb, declared a posting on defensetech.org, b that these cable cuts were intentional malicious acts. And even if the first incident was just an innocent but important accident, the second could well be a terrorist copycat event.b Or American villainy, said others. A user called Blakey Rat reported that b the US navy was at one point technically able to tap into undersea fibre-optic cables using a special chamber mounted on a support submarine.b A website called the Galloping Beaver asked, b where is the USS Jimmy Carter?bba nuclear attack submarine which had apparently vanished.

The notion that something spookier than ships' anchors was to blame gained ground when Egypt's transport ministry said it had studied video footage of the sea lanes where the cables had been, and no ships had crossed the line of the breakage for 12 hours before and after the accident (the area is, in fact, off limits to shipping). Suspicion spread when yet another cablebbetween Qatar and the United Arab Emiratesbwent down on February 3rd. b Beyond the realm of coincidence!b said a user of ArabianBusiness.com.

In fact, the fourth break was unsuspicious: the network was taken down by its operator because of a power failure. But by that time the conspiracists were in overdrive. Slashdot.org, a discussion board, said Iran had lost all internet access on February 1st. b A communications disruption can mean only one thingbinvasion,b said bigdavex, quoting a line from a b Star Warsb film. Bloggers in Pakistan, having recovered from their disruption, returned with a vengeance. The broken cables, they said, forced a delay in the opening of an oil bourse in Tehran; this would have led, claimed pkpolitics.com, to the mass selling of dollars b which would have instantly crashed [the American] economyb. Marcus Salek of New World Order 101.com (nwo101.com) added that b President Putin ordered the Russian air force to take immediate action to protect the Russian nation's vital undersea cables.b

There is just one small problem: Iran's internet connectivity was never lost. Todd Underwood and Earl Zmijewski of Renesys, an internet-monitoring firm, reported that four-fifths of the 695 networks with connections in Iran were unaffected. Most of the other theories dissolve under analysis, too. Perhaps the American navy can bug fibre-optic cables but it's not clear how. A report for the European Parliament found in 2000 that b optical-fibre cables do not leak radio frequency signals and cannot be tapped using inductive loops. [Intelligence agencies] have spent a great deal of money on research into tapping optical fibres, reportedly with little success.b

It may be rare for several cables to go down in a week, but it can happen. Global Marine Systems, a firm that repairs marine cables, says more than 50 cables were cut or damaged in the Atlantic last year; big oceans are criss-crossed by so many cables that a single break has little impact. What was unusual about the damage in the Suez canal was that it took place at a point where two continents' traffic is borne along only three cables. More are being laid. For the moment, there is only one fair conclusion: the internet is vulnerable, in places, but getting more robust.

Agreed: It seems pretty obvious that it's not an accident. The question is, who? On Feb 9, 2008, at 10:07 AM, Tyler Durden wrote:

Well, those are particularly interesting questions though I haven't given a lot of thought to yet.

One of the things to notice is that these are fairly shallow waters in general. And while I don't believe a scuba diver went down with a hedge clippers, my assumption had been that someone had figured out some relatively low-tech way to do it, and is probably trying much more often than succeeding.

That said, these cables are not easy to break, not even by large boat anchors: The cost of fixing a less engineered design would rapidly make it worthwhile to ensure they can withstand a LOT, and they can. So I think it's worthwhile considering who has the ability to do this sans clever tactics.

I was actually surprised to hear that two cables in close proximity were broken and considered that not a coincidence. After three the pattern was becoming clear.

...

checked on it's pyhsical status); and there are only two countries > suspected of having the required type of sub (Israel and Russia) besides > the US. I would have thought Israel but for the heavy targetting of > French

...

...

...

...

Certainly once the third cut happened,> things look pretty suspicious even if>

not to be a cable cut,> just some kind of equipment power problem.> they don't turn out deserve it.> And there are different kinds of terrorists> > out there -> the ones that wear government uniforms (or wear cheap suits> but> > work for governments) don't always take the credit

...

'terrorists' take credit and are proud of their> > actions.> >nothing of that kind has happened yet.> >I guess that satellite> > communication is another alternative.> > Satellites have very limited> > bandwidth compared to fiber.> They may be ok for countries that don't have> > useful infrastructure,> like Iraq, Afghanistan, and most of Africa,> but they> > don't begin to replace

-TD> Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2008 17:36:30 -0600> From: measl@mfn.org> To: camera_lumina@hotmail.com> CC: bill.stewart@pobox.com; cypherpunks@al-qaeda.net> Subject: RE: undersea cable cuts> > > Um, thats *five* cuts. And not random cuts either - they are specifically > targetting both sides of the rings. This is someone who truly understands > the tech - they are not just cutting random cables, they are cutting the > right cables in the right sequence.> > I have been having an offline talk with a small group since this started, > and none of us believed it was "random" after cut #4, and I am pretty > certain everyone of us believes it's a pro.> > The question is *who*? The parche is in fact decomm'd (one of the group property, and I cant find any reason for it to be Russia other than > there is nobody else. Of course, I dont see what the various spook > facilities do, so who knows, maybe everyone has sea-floor open to the > water cable subs docking these days?> > -- > Yours,> J.A. Terranson> sysadmin_at_mfn.org> 0xBD4A95BF> > > What religion, please tell me, tells you as a follower of that religion> to occupy another country and kill its people? Please tell me. Does> Christianity tell its followers to do that? Judaism, for that matter?> Islam, for that matter? What prophet tells you to send 160,000 troops> to another country, kill men, women, and children? You just can't wear> your religion on your sleeve or just go to church. You should be> truthfully religious.> > Mahmoud Ahmadinejad> > On Fri, 8 Feb 2008, Tyler Durden wrote:> > > Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2008 15:21:26 -0500> > From: Tyler Durden > > To: Bill Stewart , cypherpunks@al-qaeda.net> > Subject: RE: undersea cable cuts> > > > There's been lots of net speculation about maliciousness, but for me the odds> > of 3/4 failures of undersea cables in such a relatively small area and over> > such a short amount of time is extremely suspicious, particularly given how> > robust such cables are. (ie, there's maybe a dozen in the whole world at any> > one time, over millions of route miles).> > > > Whether these are JbT-type terrorists is, I think, doubtful given the revenues> > traveling over these things and particularly how ineffective the cuts were.> > The cuts certainly appeared to me to be attempts to get a working+protect> > sides of fiber rings by people who didn't have access to that level of detail> > about how the rings are deployed over the wavelength/fiber/cable pairs.> > > > -TD> > > > > Date: Mon, 4 Feb 2008 22:05:07 -0800e> To: cypherpunks@al-qaeda.net> From:> > bill.stewart@pobox.com> Subject: Re: undersea cable cuts> > > Hadn't heard> > this was malicious ... you have a reference?> > The fourth failure turned out> themselves.> > At 07:35 PM> > 2/4/2008, Sarad AV wrote:> the internet or private network connectivity> that was> > on the fiber systems that were cut;> I don't know how big the fourth cable> > was.> > _________________________________________________________________> > Need to know the score, the latest news, or you need your Hotmail.-get your>

...

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