---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2003 14:49:51 -0400 From: "Trei, Peter" <ptrei@rsasecurity.com>

Over on Dave Farber's IP list, it's been pointed out that there is a pre-existing, live, real-money market in futures on these types of events. Go over to www.tradesports.com, and click on 'Current Events' under 'Trading Catagories' on the left. Drill down and you'll find things like 'WMDs will be found in Iraq on or before Sept 31', the value of which has dropped from 80 to 25 over the last few months.

Which only goes to show how inaccurate and generaly confused these sorts of systems are. Based on what people feel rather than what they know. The failure of all free markets to conform to what 'economists' consider the ideal. This example actually blows your whole suppostion away. -- ____________________________________________________________________ We are all interested in the future for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives. Criswell, "Plan 9 from Outer Space" ravage@ssz.com jchoate@open-forge.org www.ssz.com www.open-forge.org --------------------------------------------------------------------