-- James A. Donald

...

And the problem with a civil war in Iraq is?

John Kelsey

At least three:

a. The pottery barn theory of foreign affairs--we'd be blamed for making things worse.

And if we do nothing, we are also blamed for making things worse: Observe, for example 1. the French assist the Hutus to commit genocide against the Tutsis. Capitalism and America get blamed. 2. The Indonesians massacre infidels. Capitalism, Americans and America get blamed. 3. Saddam massacres his people. The CIA, Americans and America get blamed. 4. Syria invades Lebanon. America and Israel get blamed. 5. Africans massacre each other in the Congo. America gets blamed. (Oddly, for once, the CIA, capitalism, and Jews, are not involved.)

(I don't know how much this matters long term, but it would certainly have made life pretty hard on Tony Blair and the rest of the world leaders who actually supported us.)

The dogs bark and the caravan moves on.

b. We would one day like their oil back on the market.

They would like that also. Fortunately all the oil is Kurds, or Shiites - the first areas to be secured once the civil war burns down a bit.

c. We would like to make sure that the next regime to come to power there isn't someone we also feel obligated to get rid of, as even invasions done on the cheap cost a lot of money.

But it is easy and cheap to remove people. It is installing people that is hard, bloody, and expensive. If the dice turn out badly, just roll them again. Nobody teaches soldiers nation building in basic training. They do however, teach them nation smashing. --digsig James A. Donald 6YeGpsZR+nOTh/cGwvITnSR3TdzclVpR0+pr3YYQdkG cE8rYUZGiDSDZk4yFeEBDqa3go99WSWJnoTURH4R 4L1KruhmMXw4gVFrzipYHod+HL0bAKAEvFpvwCdUV