On Thu, 30 Jan 2003, Harmon Seaver wrote:

Actually, VW has a plant making synfuel out of biomass. And we won't have to wait long before oil is $50-100 a barrel, it's at $35 right now and world oil production will peak this decade.

In the '80's it was "obvious" that oil production would peak around 1995. We've already burned up all the solar energy collected from 140 to 250 million years ago - the dinosaur model does not fit the amount of oil we're actually finding. There's a lot more oil in the ground (most of it may be under the oceans) so the price isn't going to rise that much for the next 100 years. That doesn't make "biomass" a bad fuel, but if it's gonna compete it will have to get down to $20/barrel to be a clear winner.

That's a pretty easy decision to make, eh? Ethanol is renewable, oil isn't. Ethanol doesn't pollute, oil does. Ethanol doesn't require troops in the Middle East, wars, and resultant terror attacks, oil does. Quite simple.

Ethanol pollutes, any hydrocarbon is going to be mixed with N2 and make NOx, there's no getting around it with any kind of Otto engine. Oil doesn't *need* to make wars either. It's just that people with guns also happen to be oil sellers, and stealing oil is cheaper than buying it. We could just buy Iraqi oil and solve a lot of problems all around.

Yes, but importing sugar isn't the answer either. Sugar beets and sorghum grow fine in the US. The best crop, however, is cattails. However, diesels are still a better solution, running on a biodiesel/ethanol mix, perhaps. The main problem is corporate welfare. Farm subsidies and oil subsidies. Until that problem is solved, I don't think we'll see any real solutions, and, unfortunately, the way the world is going, I don't think that will happen in any of our lifetimes.

Like I've said before, the key to corruption is to make it work in your favor. The Romans, Spanish, French and American empires are all the same, corruption eventually causes them to collapse. But people still live there, with entrenched corruption. I think our best solution is to escape. Mars might be far enough away that we can start a nice civilazation. But it'll turn corrupt eventually because that's how humans work. So we'll need to leave the keys for future escapes :-) Patience, persistence, truth, Dr. mike