Tim May[SMTP:tcmay@got.net] wrote:
On Monday, June 3, 2002, at 08:40 AM, Trei, Peter wrote:
OnThe MPAA does not have to 'will them out of existance', or even make them illegal. They plan to change the broadcast standard so they are not supported.
At least, this is my interpretation:
The FCC has mandated a change to all-digital formats over the next 5 years or so. After that, analog (NTSC) transmission will be phased out.
My strong hunch is that there is essentially no chance of this happening. For a mix of reasons which I'll just briefly list:
Tim: I'm working on more then 'hunches'. Consider: http://ftp.fcc.gov/Bureaus/Mass_Media/News_Releases/1998/nrmm8003.html - start quote - The FCC reaffirmed its service rules for the conversion by all U.S. broadcasters to digital broadcasting services (DTV), including build-out construction schedules, NTSC and DTV channel simulcasting, and the return of analog channels to the government by 2006. - end quote - That's the official USG position 5 years ago. Note the last clause in particular. Your NTSC set will be a paperweight, at least as far as over-the-air reception is concerned, by 2006. Now, in reality, the trashing of your old TV may be delayed... (I'm quoting from www.digitaltelevision.com here): - start quote - Ending the Transition By Congressional mandate, the transition period ends on December 31, 2006. On that date, NTSC broadcasting should terminate and stations should operate in a DTV mode alone, unless the FCC has granted a waiver. Any extensions beyond the final date will be considered on a market-by-market basis. Under the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, the Commission is required to grant a station's request for an extension if: One or more stations affiliated with one of the Top-4 networks is not operating digitally, because the Commission has granted the station(s) an extension of time to complete construction; Digital-to-analog converters are not generally available on the market; or Fifteen percent or more of the homes in the market cannot receive a DTV signal either off the air or via cable or do not have either a digital TV set or analog-to-digital converter attached to one NTSC TV set capable of receive DTV signals in their local market. - end quote - ...but it will happen eventually. After the stations are broadcasting digitally, the analog stations are unneeded, and regardless of whether the FCC or the station has the auction rights, they'll want to sell off the old spectrum. Neither the FCC nor the broadcasters will want to forego the money. [...]
Item: Their system, my system, and tens of millions like them, are already giving so many "degrees of freedom" that the cat is already out of the bag. An attempt to make future DVDs incompatible with the tens of millions of existing systems will be met with anger, boycotts, and seeking of alternatives (e.g., a studio which continues to sell DVDs will win out over ones which offer only newer and incompatible versions). Throw in the pissed-off folks who bought HDTV systems in 1997-2003 and are then told that they'll have to scrap even those systems!
Well, I'm convinced - I guess that's why every single album today is released on both CD *and* vinyl - can't piss off the tens of millions of turntable owners, after all. [..]
I give the chance that Jack Valenti and his bunch will be able to force a conversion to a new video standard no chance of happening. Manufacturers will back off if they see sales trending downward (for the reasons cited above).
Tim, I think you're missing the point here. Valenti and his ilk would like nothing more than to force you to to rebuy your visual media *again*, but they don't have to. I'll bet dollars to donuts that you've rebought some of your VCR tapes as DVDs. Whey wouldn't the MPAA think they can make you do it over?
Until these standards are settled one way or the other, anyone buying digital video equipment (HDTV or otherwise) runs a very substantial risk of finding themselves with a set of expensive and otherwise useless doorstops.
Which is deterring huge numbers of people from even looking at HDTV. And so they buy more DVDs, which are vastly better than the VHS tapes they've been watching for years. Most of them apparently see little compelling reason to upgrade to HDTV.
The BCPG etal are moaning about the 'analog hole' because that's the one they can't easily fix. They've already agreed not to license the marketing of devices with unprotected digital-out (the deCSS case was about this, remember?) So the 'digital hole' is already plugged - as more and more devices recognize and respond to the watermarks, the usability of a ripped digital-to-digital file decreases.
Progress and innovation in electronics will occur only at the whim (and in the interest) of the entertainment industry.
Actually, I disagree. There are many examples--MP3s, Napster, the system my friends have that I described, etc.--where the "street" does its own thing regardless of what the entertainment industry and Jack Valenti want.
Well, Napster just went Chapter 11. Any future system which requires either vintage or illegally hacked HW will have very limited usage.
Final personal note: About a year ago I saw the absolutely gorgeous, splendiferous Apple 22-inch "Cinema Display." A huge TFT flat monitor, with a resolution of about 1600 x 1200. And they've now added a slightly larger version with an ever higher resolution. I see myself getting one of these, or the 30-inch version which will probably be available for the same price in 2 years--and rigging it as my main high-res viewing system.
I've seen them too - very, very nice!
(Yeah, these systems are not so great for families and for viewing parties, but, let's face it, when was the last time this kind of viewing happened to you? Most of my own viewing, and that of nearly everyone I know, is personal.)
Not everyone is single and living alone. The last time for me was last night - I and the kids watched The Simpsons, and my wife joined us for Malcom in the Middle (very funny, but about a lifestyle alien to you). Saturday night we had 5 people sit through Harry Potter, as did about 8 of the neighbourhood kids on Sunday afternoon. There are a very large number of families-with-kids out there, and family viewing is common. On a side note - the HP movie (which I'm not that fond of) is in itself an example of the publishers being willing to piss people off. The deleted scenes (one of the better things you get on DVDs) where hidden behind a long and very inobvious set of operations in the 'special features' section, essentially as an Easter Egg. Not only that, but the operations neccesary to reach them reliably crashed my DVD player, which less then a year old, due to insufficient memory. My daughter's PS/2 console came to the rescue.
The degrees of freedom will win out over the control freaks.
Let's hope.
--Tim May "Ben Franklin warned us that those who would trade liberty for a little bit of temporary security deserve neither. This is the path we are now racing down, with American flags fluttering."-- Tim May, on events following 9/11/2001
Peter Trei