At 6:34 AM 8/12/96, Rabid Wombat wrote:
(no crypto here, so delete it already) :)
A good rant, in the best sense of the word.
players will be the same as today, that depends. If the railroads had realized that they were in the transportation business, instead of the train business, they'd be flying airplanes today.
I've heard this example used for years, and I'm skeptical. The methods and experts needed by early aviation companies were completely different from the methods and experts the railroad companies had; I'm not convinced that deciding one is in the "transportation business" is the key.
Anyone that wants to carry a large volume of traffic via the 'net will find that either the market will dictate that they pay for the bandwidth they use, or the FCC will. I don't see the FCC getting involved, unless the "phone service via internet" providor tries to use the courts to get out of paying for the bandwidth they use. They'll be restricted by the size of the "pipe" they purchase from their ISP, and the ISPs all charge more for access from larger "pipes." If they lease their own cross-country circuits, they'll pay the same (or higher) costs as the Telcos.
I see zero chance a local ISP will attempt to use the courts to "get out of" a charge he has incurred. For one thing, his supplier can simply say "you don't pay, you get cut off," and be supported by the courts. For another, even the ISP may not be able to simply tell which customers are using telephony programs and which are just dowloading pictures of Christy Canyon. Will "unmetered" usage go away? It depends on a lot of factors. Right now, unmetered usage is a big enough marketing draw that it appears to outcompete metered usage plans. Sure, there are people like me who pay a flat rate (in my case, $20/month) and yet who are on for several hours a day. But the subscribers who also pay the $20/mo and yet who are on only briefly to check their mail are not clamoring to switch to metered usage. If Internet telephony becomes a big deal, I still suspect unmetered usage will be common. If the capacity isn't there, from the ISP through the various links to the other person's ISP then there will be stalls and delays. Think of it as evolution in action, like crowded freeways. --Tim May Boycott "Big Brother Inside" software! We got computers, we're tapping phone lines, we know that that ain't allowed. ---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---- Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, tcmay@got.net 408-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero W.A.S.T.E.: Corralitos, CA | knowledge, reputations, information markets, Licensed Ontologist | black markets, collapse of governments. "National borders aren't even speed bumps on the information superhighway."