Benjamin McLemore writes:
Any newer Vinge estimates of arrival time for the Singularity? I saw an article a while back by Vinge and I think he was estimating 2013-2030 timeframe.
We discussed the Singularity at length (thus delaying the arrival by some number of seconds). Vinge is not at all strident in his estimates. In fact, I am more strident in my _deep doubts_ that anything like his timetable is at all reasonable. (I look at the progress needed, the current slow rate, and the conceptual issues which are not yet solved. And the all-important issue of economic incentives, and the difficulty of "crossing the desert." I've written about his before, and won't here.)
I've been thinking of starting a Singularity Watch type Web-page/email list, as I am often struck by technological newsbits that seem enough out-of-the-ordinary and potentially status quo shattering that they seem to indicate some sort of potential for breakthrough.
This is actually counter-productive, in my odd opinion. Many bright folks I know here are affected by Toffler's "overchoice" dilemma: too many exciting areas to study...and, after all, if the Singularity is coming on Feb 13, 2016, why design boring things like 10-million transistor chips? The focus on the mythical "Singularity" is not very useful. Also, most of the "tidbits" of technology that get reported are marketing hype. I won't recapitulate points I used to make at length on another list (Extropians), but most discoveries cited are not at all steps toward "the Singularity."
Some recent examples:
*human genome project
Of interest, but not even as interesting as other things.
*quantum mechanical teleportation
Aharonov-Bohm may exist, but it ain't teleportation! I don't want to sound rude here, but it does a disservice to even call it this.
*high energy ion bombardment of nuclei in Germany yields something besides quarks, gluons in protons (potential challenge to QCD, is this our photoelectric effect finally?)
I don't know anything about this (references?), but it seems pretty clear that the Singularity will or will not arrive based on fairly standard technologies, certainly no technologies involving gluons and whatnot are going to be of engineering importance anytime soon. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't seen any connections.
*quantum computing
Like quantum teleportation, probably not real. In any case, I support Vinge's point that the main enabling technology he was thinking of was the truly powerful, artificially intelligent computer, able to design an even better successor, etc. (The long-awaited, and much-delayed "runaway" situation, a la "The Forbin Project.) Vinge assumes no oddball physics. As an ex-physicist, I concur.
Despite the romantic appeal of the idea, though, I think it is a bit farther off than Vinge imagines--maybe 2050.
Maybe. But only maybe. --Tim May -- .......................................................................... Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, tcmay@netcom.com | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero 408-688-5409 | knowledge, reputations, information markets, W.A.S.T.E.: Aptos, CA | black markets, collapse of governments. Higher Power: 2^859433 | Public Key: PGP and MailSafe available. "National borders are just speed bumps on the information superhighway."