At 09:08 PM 6/9/97 -0700, Tim May wrote:
At 8:16 PM -0700 6/9/97, Jim Choate wrote:
... The actual cycle is much more complicated than Tim is alluding to here.
I agree. I was mainly reacting to Igor's simplistic model from Economics that a tax on something will decrease consumption of it.
There are many, many other issues.
I didn't even mention one of the most basic ones: no one expects to get caught.
This is certainly true. I lived in cities most of my life and encountered a good number of sellers of various illegal merchandise. [On 6th Street in San Francisco, everything from crack to counterfeit subway passes is on sale. On SSI payday, the dealers line up at 8 am right across from the check cashing place. This is taking place two blocks away from the main police station, the municipal court, and the county jail. The dealers conduct their business openly in plain sight of anyone walking to the nearby subway station. Same for the consumers smoking glass pipes in the alley half a block away. All of this is funded by your tax dollars.] Neither party seems to think they will be caught.
Thus, the increased penalties do indeed increase the averaged costs of producing child porn. But a rule of thumb is that markets will thrive when:
selling price > production cost
Medical cocaine wholesales in the US for $0.50 per gramm. I am told that "street" cocaine with <50% active ingredient sells for about $50 a gramm. That's two orders of magnitude difference between production cost and selling price. No wonder that some of the smarter youths, the one's that can keep track of money and understand business, choose careers as drug dealers. What other good gives you similar profit margins? [I believe they are missguided, but this must be hard to understand if you are 16 and can make $1000 per day selling drugs.] Well, child pornography might have similar profit margins. Or at least it will, once Se7en and the feds succeed in raising the price. Everything is the other way around, --Lucky Green <shamrock@netcom.com> PGP encrypted mail preferred. Put a stake through the heart of DES! Join the quest at http://www.frii.com/~rcv/deschall.htm