Tim May, a notoriously bad prognosticator (remember the "Thanksgiving Surprise"?) writes:
Here's what I expect will happen in the coming weeks:
* a massive military attack on Afghanistan and possibly "rebel bases" in many parts of the Mideast
Yes, most people expect this.
* a series of hastily-passed new laws restricting communications (with remailers targeted specifically because they by their nature are not in "compliance" with CALEA)
Very unlikely as far as the remailers. It looks like there may be some proposals for crypto limitations, but it will be a hard fight. Every interested party who fought last time will be dusting off their old arguments. Cryptographers like Matt Blaze and others have already made their intentions clear on the crypto mailing list.
* on the day the war begins, next week or in the weeks thereafter, a series of raids on those operating remailers, those who have identified these repressive measures, and those who have spoken against the American Jihad or who have publically opined that the WTC bombing resembles the Reichstag Fire
Absolutely not. Completely absurd. You must have forgotten to take your anti paranoia pills again. As for the Reichstag Fire, for the history impaired this was an attack secretly engineered by the Nazis to give them an excuse to seize power. The implication is that the United States government arranged for the WTC attack! Only someone in the grips of clinical paranoia could make such a suggestion. Tim May is really losing it now.
* these raids will be done in the usual pre-dawn, ninja-clad storm trooper way: flash-bangs, shoot anything that appears to move, put the perps _down_!
Right, ninja troops carrying away bespectacled, nerdly remailer operators. Here's a better fantasy. They'll hire $1000/night superhookers and seduce the remailer operators into giving up their keys. Both have about equal chances of reality. If the government really does care about remailers, chances are Carnivore is already more than up to the task. Cryptographic analyses have shown many times how weak the current remailer network is. See below for a list of attacks on remailers from the guys at Zero-Knowledge. Add in the ability to penetrate systems and steal their keys and the remailer network provides far from terrorist-grade security. Far better for the spooks to leave the network running and provide the illusion of security in the hopes that criminals will trust it. If they take it down they'll just drive the terrorists further underground.
* many of those arrested in the raids may not actually be prosecuted, as even pliable courts will find little or no constitutional basis for prosecution, though some fraction will die while "resisting arrest" (a few highly-publicized "barricade situations," a la Waco, should help with the terror campaign)
The United States government has no interest in killing remailer operators! Please try to keep some semblance of a grip on reality.
* those not arrested, shut down, kicked off their ISPs, or killed will be driven underground, or, in most cases, will "promise not to do it again" and will meekly become the Carnivore Administrators for their systems
See above, there are better solutions to remailers from the point of view of law enforcement. Yes, Carnivore may be part of the plan, but there's no reason for the remailer operator to know about it.
* Robb London and Jeff Gordon and their ilk will be promoted to new positions within the National Unity Government and will be asked to detail their successful prosecutions of notorious cypherpunk terrrorists
Even as fantasy, this is deteriorating...
* Congress will hold endless hearings reminiscent of the House Un-American Activities Committee hearings. Activists and crypto advocates will receive subpoenas. The media, even the newly-fascist tech media, will villify them.
Starring... Tim May, of course. It is sad that this once brilliant mind has been reduced by isolation and bitterness into constructing these paranoid fantasies.
* Someday, perhaps in 20 years, wiser heads will realize that shredding the Constitution in support of some Zionists who pushed Arabs (called "sand niggers") off of their lands was not a good idea.
There are already many voices warning against weakening the Constitution. You won't have to wait 20 years for sanity to prevail.
War is coming. Against us, against liberty, against the Constitution.
War is coming, against Afghanistan and other Arab organizations. On that part you were right. The rest of it is just your paranoid ravings.
If I stop posting in the coming weeks, you'll know why.
Because you'll be embarrassed to have been proven wrong once again? === A few kinds of remailer attacks: Brute Force Attack Node Flushing Attack (aka Spam Attack) Timing Attack Communication Pattern Attack Packet Counting Attack Intersection Attack Denial of Service Attack User Reaction Attack Sting Attack Distinguished Message Attack Message Delaying Attack Message Tagging Attack