A bit off of our regularly scheduled program, but with Yeltsin saying that Clinton might be starting a 3rd World War last week, I thought I would pass this on. To: webwarrior3@infowar.com Subject: Russia/Iraq From: alert@stratfor.com Date: Tue, 10 Feb 1998 19:59:26 -0600 (CST) ______________________________________ Check out our newest product: Santizer Give away your computer, not your data ______________________________________ Global Intelligence Update Red Alert February 11, 1998 Russia Threatens to Arm Baghdad But will Saddam Remain in Power? According to a report on Tuesday in the online edition of the Egyptian newspaper Al-sha'b, the Russian government has warned Washington that Russia will supply arms and humanitarian aid to Iraq if the United States chooses to abandon diplomatic efforts and attacks Iraq. Al-Sha'b reported that Baghdad requested 20 billion dollars in urgent military and humanitarian aid from Russia. Baghdad, which already owes Russia 80 billion dollars, hopes to be able to pay off its debt once sanctions are lifted. Al-Sha'b went on to report that Washington has monitored heightened states of alert and increased military preparedness throughout the Middle East, and has warned neighboring Arab states against providing Iraq with military support. If the Egyptian report is factual, then Russia has just moved even closer to confrontation with the United States. Its previous threats of world war are clearly not credible. Sending aid to Iraq is, on the other hand, quite credible and therefore is in many ways more dangerous. The question is, will Hussein be there after the U.S. attack to receive the arms? We have noticed a curious juxtaposition of official U.S. statements on the crisis in Iraq with the emerging balance of U.S. forces in the region, suggesting that Washington may be expecting an Iraqi coup d'etat. U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright testified before the Senate on Tuesday that, in the event U.S. air strikes contributed to toppling Saddam Hussein, "it would create a situation which, for a time, would require the presence of troops." The United States has accelerated its deployment of ground troops to the region. Three thousand troops from Ft. Stewart are being deployed to reinforce the 1,500 U.S. ground troops already in Kuwait. The USS Tarawa and the USS Guam, amphibious assault ships each carrying a 2,000-man Marine Expeditionary Unit, are headed for the Persian Gulf. Other U.S. ground forces in the region include 6,000 soldiers at the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and 10,000 soldiers engaged in military exercises in Egypt. Additionally, the list of potential U.S. targets has grown from suspected chemical and biological agent sites to include command and control installations, the Iraqi air force, and the Republican Guard. This suggests a decapitation strike, aimed at disrupting Hussein's capability to coordinate a defense of his hold on power. Iraqi opposition forces also appear to be preparing for an altered post-air strike environment. The rival Kurdish Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdestan are planning a meeting on February 12 to settle outstanding differences and stabilize their cease-fire. Iraqi Kurdestan's Conservative Party public relations officer, Aram Muhammad Sa'id, declared in an interview on Monday with the Iranian News Agency that Turkey's latest entry into northern Iraq had the "green light" from the United States, and was part of a U.S. plan to use air strikes to topple Hussein and dismember Iraq. Finally, the Iraqi National Congress has reported that Baath Party and military officials have begun evacuating southern Iraq, lest an uprising follow U.S. air strikes. Many in the U.S. Congress have asserted the need for an "end game" that removes Saddam Hussein from power, but thus far the U.S. has been unable to foment or coordinate an overthrow of Hussein. If it is to be successful, we will not know for certain about a coup plot's existence until it is underway. But circumstances do hint that something may be in the works. Baghdad has evidently noticed this, as Iraqi Foreign Minister Saeed al- Sahhaf asserted on Tuesday that the U.S. would fail to topple the Iraqi regime, since Hussein had the support of the Iraqi people. The question is this: is there a real possibility of a coup in Baghdad or is this part of U.S. psychological warfare against Iraq? In a way, the possibility of a coup is more reasonable an explanation for U.S. behavior than the idea that the U.S. is going to mount an air campaign against chemical and biological weapons. What is not clear is whether a coup has a real chance or whether this is just wishful thinking on the part of the United States. And it is not clear what Russia would do if the coup turned into a protracted internal struggle. ___________________________________________________ To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at http://www.stratfor.com/mail/, or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to info@stratfor.com ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR Systems, Inc. 3301 Northland Drive, Suite 500 Austin, TX 78731-4939 Phone: 512-454-3626 Fax: 512-454-1614 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: info@stratfor.com