From: Talley Anonymous Remailer[SMTP:nobody@talley.remailer.org] Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 6:47 PM To: cypherpunks@lne.com Subject: bin Laden tape reliability
Have any of the cypherpunks run across useful analyses of the recently released bin Laden videotape?
Mainstream media seems ready to question the accuracy of the translation - but I'm curious if the tape has any basis in reality at all.
If it's a fake, it's a damn subtle one. I've read the transcript, but not seen the tape. The contents do not unequivocally prove UBL to be behind the 9/11 attacks, but it's a very reasonable inference. It does clearly show that UBL claiming to have foreknowledge of the attacks. If you want to go beyond what I consider reasonable, you could argue that UBL is taking credit for someone else's work. I find it difficult to believe that someone would go to the trouble of producing a fake, and not use it to show UBL categorically taking responsibility for the crime. I'm inclined to believe the tapes reality.
Purportedly, it was discovered by unidentified parties in an abandoned house in Afghanistan, then delivered to the CIA for processing before release by the Defense Department.
How do we know it wasn't manufactured in order to mislead?
Perhaps it was left in the abandoned house as a deliberate red herring - something like that would take some budget, which would seem to suggest it was produced by the intelligence arm of at least a moderate- sized nation. (Like Israel. Or the UK. Or the USA. Or ..?)
Perhaps it wasn't found in an abandoned house at all, but was born somewhere in the DC suburbs.
If someone intended to make a distracting fake, it seems like they might follow one of two paths - they could find (or help create, with some Hollywood magic) a bin Laden lookalike, and have him interact with some other Afghan/Arabic-looking folks. Or, they could go digital, and create a wholly artificial animation model of bin Laden.
The first method is probably easier, but also probably easier to detect, if analysts are inclined to compare things like facial geometry or voice characteristics. (It's a shame the tape has such poor quality.)
Facial geometry would be an interesting test. The folks claiming to be able to spot baddies by facial recognition systems could do an interesting demo - feeding known pictures of UBL into their system to build a profile, then seeing the the UBL on the tape matches. I gather the sound is pretty poor, so voiceprints may not be doable.
The second method would likely allow the creation of near-undetectable fakes, especially if they overlaid the animated creation on top of a physically constructed set with natural lighting, etc (though lighting and shadow might be good places to look for evidence of forgery, or lack thereof.)
Near-undetectable? I don't think so. Convincing human faces are just about the hardest thing to do in CGI animation. Humans are hardwired to recognize and differentiate between faces, and we're very sensitive to fakes. Look at Pixar's efforts, or the recent video game based movie (Final Fantasy???) No one is going to watch the humans in either of those for more than a few seconds without realizing that they are not real. CGI humans are still like dancing bears - which are applauded not because they dance well, but because the dance at all.
Maybe the tape is exactly what it purports to be - hard to say. But the media's not even asking the interesting questions.
Perhaps, but I'll take the position it's real until more evidence appears to the contrary. Peter Trei ============================================================================ ================ This e-mail, its content and any files transmitted with it are intended solely for the addressee(s) and are PRIVILEGED and CONFIDENTIAL. Access by any other party is unauthorized without the express prior written permission of the sender. If you have received this e-mail in error you may not copy, disclose to any third party or use the contents, attachments or information in any way, Please delete all copies of the e-mail and the attachment(s), if any and notify the sender. Thank You. ============================================================================ ================