On Friday, September 21, 2001, at 08:44 PM, Declan McCullagh wrote:
* It's not just getting hit by an attack that we citydwellers may need to worry about, but the disruption afterward. It seems, based on news reports, that many thousands of New Yorkers were left without basic water-gas-electricity-phone service after last week's attacks. Water, food, warm clothes -- lucky it wasn't winter -- can be vital. Better than a Red Cross handout shelter.
* Folks in DC are starting to think through this. My intern told me today he has a gas mask (not new, he's had it a while). It's sorta a nervous joke -- echo of Y2K -- but as soon as there's another attack anywhere, folks in DC and NYC will get serious real fast. Biochemwomdnuke attack and all bets are off.
As I said, the odds are that not much will happen...for a while. In a few months, after nothing has happened, these folks now worried will be claiming they knew all along that nothing would happen. (Nothing happened, therefore nothing _could_ have happened, the logic of the Monday morning quarterback.) But I'll bet a lot of the NYC elite spend more time at their homes in the Hamptons and in the country, even as winter comes on. They'll make sure to be in NYC for the galas (but not the big ones, the ones that might be targets).
* I have family in NYC who were out of the country during the attacks. Now they're back, and they say they're not as willing to live in NYC permanently. Suburbia is looking far more attractive.
* Aimee posted something in the last week or so that was comprehensible for once (I've since lost the post), which was a URL for a folding plastic gas-mask with a charcoal filter. I recall it didn't seem designed for chemattacks; it would be interesting to know what it could filter.
Well, I posted about the EVAC-U8 mask/hood, with a charcoal filter. Available from the usual sources, like Nitro-Pak and Botach. Probably sold out now, though. Useful in fires, but also any noxious fume situation...for about 10-20 minutes. Any attack with VX or similar nerve gas would kill tens of thousands fairly quickly. Gas masks of no use, due to lack of coverage of all exposed skin, and leakage. Gas masks mainly useful for mustard gas, that sort of thing. Preston's "The Cobra Event" is a pretty good novel about releasing a virus in crowded cities. This was of course the novel that scared Clinton into starting a series of reviews of biochemical terrorism plans.
* The Washington City Paper has a horrific cover story this week on the city's beyond-pathetic response to Tuesday's attacks: http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/cover/cover.html
Something that is more of a "Towering Inferno" issue than a terrorism issue is the complete absence of any firefighting efforts with the WTC. Yeah, I know about the 300 firefighters killed trying to evacuate people. But where were the aerial water- and foam-spraying aircracraft? Where were the choppers landing on the roof to pluck off those who got to the roof? Nothing. It's apparent that the only plan to fight this fire was for the sophisticated sprinkler system to do its job. (Probably nothing could have dealt with the tons of aviation fuel dumped inside the buildings, but, still, the absence of any aerial fire-suppression efforts pretty much tells us what "The Towering Inferno" told us 25 years ago: tall buildings, taller than about 30 stories, are "on their own.")
* Based on this kind of report, you've got to wonder what would happen if there were biochemwomdnuke attacks. I note this WOMD is coming up a bit more on the news than last week; part of it may be the news networks looking for another story. Or it could be that DC-NYC city dwellers are a bit more worried, and what they're worried about is reflected on the air.
The planning over many years, the sleeper agents, and the coordinated element of surprise tells us that the next attack will NOT be with airliners. The surprise is lost, the planes will be shot down (if there's time...I still think a plane could be diverted from an airport into a crowded stadium near the airport faster than fighters could be scrambled), the pilots will shoot back, etc. The fact that this attack was several years in the making tells us that the _other_ cells could in fact be preparing releases of anthrax, or nerve gas, or even smallpox. The AUM cult made their own nerve gas, more than once, so Al Qaida has had years to do even better. And we know how easy it is to make anthrax cultures. Many ways to do it. Pellets lobbed with slingshots into a NYC "Parade for the Heroes." 40,000 people dying of anthrax. A few cannisters of VX fired with a mortar. A football stadium with 60,000 fans. And a live television audience seeing the convulsions begin...
* If we knew what we know now and were building a terrorist-resistant society, we could. Not terrorist-proof, but resistant. No high buildings, no large underground complexes, very spread out, transportation perhaps based on cars, bicycles and light rail. Airports far away from city centers, ala Denver and Pittsburgh, to avoid the problem that still-not-open Reagan National airport is having, and other airports like LaGuardia, Logan, and SF could have. The problem is that we already have a terrorist-prone society, or at least terrorist-vulnerable, and instead of rebuilding and "flattening" our vertical construction, we're trying to terrorist-proof it.
Soft targets. Talked about on this list, in other fora, for many years. Dean Ing wrote a (not so great) novel with this title some years back. Anyway, Declan and I have talked about this issue many times. I live on the coast, with nothing upwind of me except the Pacific Ocean. (I actually live about 4-5 miles inland, but same difference...just lightly populated residential areas due west of me.) Partly it's to escape the ant heap of cities (Silicon Valley was too crowded for me, and it's by no means a "city"). Partly for other reasons. I certainly like having my couple of acres on top of a hill, with a defensible perimeter. Other people move even further out into the country.... Being somewhat of a worrier, even a paranoid, I can't say I see things getting any better over time. The "degrees of freedom" of our multi-dimensional society mean that someone will always be pissed off and ready to fight. And there are many points of attack. Kill Bin Laden and he's a martyr for a hundred others...some of who may already be blending into Pakistani society. (And Pakistan will be our new best friend, so many of these sleepers will get plenty of chances to visit the U.S....) I'm rambling here, so I'll stop. --Tim May