nnburk wrote:
Predictions: Crime and Criminal Justice in the 21st Century
1. The United States will experience a significant economic recession/crisis very close to the turn of the Century.
I see this as well and agree with it. The recent stock market rocking back and forth is a sign that something sucks, and sucks badly. Y2K will of course make this into a bigger horror.
2. As the large pool of young people born in the early 1990s become teenagers and young adults, there will be a dramatic increase in violent crime around the year 2005-2010.
I don't necessarily see this. What do you base this on? Outside of where I live, there is an elementary school. Young kids these days are made to wear UNIFORMS and carry ID's and can only go to school with see through bags and must pass through metal detectors and/or be frisked. Further, one of the local newspapers (Times? Daily News? Post?) here in NYC had some story about how the city school security will be taken over by the police department, effectively turning schools into jails. IMHO, this won't turn out delinquents, this will turn out slaves who are used to being treated as slaves, are used to having no freedoms and don't expect them; they'll live without privacy and they'll like it. Those are your kids America: sheep! Mindless slaves rarely rebel; unless you take away their MTV and their Sony Playstations I doubt this.
3. America will experience sporadic civil disorders/riots in many of its urban areas during the next 10-15 years -- much of it related to racial/ethnic problems.
Doubt it. Unless they can't get food or money, or IF there are massive blackouts they will riot, but will do so to break into stores and loot. (Speaking based on LA riots and riots here in NYC about a decade or two ago when power failed.)
4. Terrorist acts by "fringe"/special issue groups will increase at a significant rate -- becoming a major law enforcement and security problem.
Okay, this is likely.
5. As faith in the criminal justice system declines, there will be a rise in vigilante-based incidents where citizens take the enforcement of crime problems into their own hands.
The rest of your prediction sounds like you've watched Robocop a few times too many and actually BELIEVED it! :) Care to back it up with reasons?
6. Much of middle- and upper-class America will take a "retreatist" attitude and move into private high-security communities located in suburban or rural areas. Because of technological advances, many companies and corporations will also move out of the urban environments as well.
7. Due to many of the predictions listed above, much of law enforcement and security in the 21st Century will become privatized and contractual. Traditional law enforcement agencies will primarily serve urban and rural communities.
8. Law enforcement will evolve into two major and divergent roles: traditional law enforcement and a more specialized military tactical role to deal with the growing urban violance and terrorist incidents.
9. Significant violence and unrest will plague our nation's prisons. Major prison riots will become a regular occurrence.
10. With the decrease of the possibility of major global warfare, the United States military will take on an increased domestic "peace-keeping" role with America's law enforcement agencies.
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