I very strongly disagree with Attila the Hun on his views about Microsoft. But I won't argue the case here. My comments below are just on some specific points. His general outlook I am completely at odds with. At 7:49 AM -0800 2/3/98, Attila T. Hun wrote:
at this point, I would say M$ has won the game. W98 will be released with IE4 as the desktop, complete with push channels and www.msn.com --at that point, Jackson --if
On this we agree. Microsoft cannot lose at this point. NT 5.0 and Windows 98 are presumably coming, and will be on 97% of all desktops. The issue of Netscape's browser is mostly meaningless, anyway, from a revenue standpoint. Navigator is now free for all users. Unless Big Brother tells MS what it must sell its browser for--shades of the "Anti Dog-eat-Dog Law" in "Atlas Shrugged"--it is likely to remain this way. (The real issue is going to be Web servers. Whether Netscape can prosper in the world that is coming is unclear.)
so... we will have multiple choice of OS: M$ on Intel, M$ on SGI, M$ on Alpha --and SUN goes down the tubes as
I wouldn't be so sure about these choices, either! SGI is hedging their bet on the MIPS processor family by porting to Intel processors and NT. (I predict SGI will drop the MIPS line for workstations and desktops, leaving the MIPS chips for Nintendo 64 and other such controller-oriented uses.) And Compaq has announced plans to acquire DEC, so the future of the Alpha processor is even more in doubt than before. (News reports are that the deal Intel made with DEC may be killed by this Compaq deal...and even if both deals go through, Compaq is unlikely to deviate in a major way from the Intel processor line.) Even Sun has announced major plans to port Solaris to the Intel Merced line. (They've long had ports...I mean a _serious_ port. Probably meaning a move away from the SPARC line.) So, we've got: -- MS on Intel-based systems from all major PC makers -- MS on Intel-based systems from DEC -- MS on Intel-based systems from SGI -- MS on Intel-based systems from H-P -- Solaris and H-PUX (or whatever H-P's UNIX is called) on Intel Merced And so on. (I've left out the PowerPC, as it appears now to be limited solely to the Macintosh market...even IBM and Motorola appear to have acknowledged its failure.) Looks to me like Intel is the real winner here. (And even Intel's competitors in the "Intel compatible" market are struggling, unable to make the chips. I've written about this several times. Just yesterday National Semiconductor admitted that its Cyrix chip unit was losing sales, falling further behind, having huge losses, and not producing needed new chips. Meanwhile, PC makers who foolishly committed designs to the AMD design are unable to deliver....CyberMax committed to the K6 line and is now unable to ship its only product, as the limited number of chips AMD can make are trickled out to other companies.) As for Attila's calls to break up MS...could make Bill Gates immensely wealthier, as he'd then have a piece of the 5 most successful software companies! (I assume Attila is not arguing for simply seizing his property and giving it to others, or running it as a government company, or just padlocking the doors....) --Tim May "National borders aren't even speed bumps on the information superhighway." ---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---- Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, ComSec 3DES: 408-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero W.A.S.T.E.: Corralitos, CA | knowledge, reputations, information markets, Higher Power: 2^3,021,377 | black markets, collapse of governments.