On 19 May 96 at 20:31, you, Pat Trainor, wrote:
On Sun, 19 May 1996, Jean-Francois Avon wrote:
Back to AP, I did not invent the scheme nor do I approve or like it a lot. But I find it very interesting to discuss.
The author of AP is Jim Bell <jimbell@pacifier.com>.
That was what I was interested in. You see, I read a story exactly along the same lines a long time ago, and I thought the group would like to know just what happenned during that 'scheme'.
I would gladly read the long letter that you wrote.
Here's the text, and if you didn't see it posted, please repost with a cc to Mr. Bell. If you did see it, then just erase.. But the damnest thing that my email is so squirrely!!
Thanks again!!
(if anyone wrote me in a reply, I never got it. ISP is putting a new T1 in, and this is causing errors in traffic I'm told.)
From ptrainor@aura.title14.com Sun May 19 20:23:48 1996 Date: Thu, 16 May 1996 22:09:16 -0400 From: Pat Trainor <ptrainor@aura.title14.com> To: jimbell <jimbell@pacifier.com> Newsgroups: talk.politics.crypto, talk.politics.libertarian, alt.politics.libertarian, alt.society.anarchy, alt.privacy, alt.security.pgp, alt.activism, alt.anarchism, alt.cyberpunk, alt.politics.datahighway Subject: Re: Insurable Interest Assassination Politics 1-3
On Thu, 9 May 1996, jimbell wrote:
How will this be enforced, someone with more resources, money, drugs, guns, better planned religion, icbms, will start to gather "like minded individuals" and start to tell others how to live., some will join them, others will fight, and we're back where we started.
No, because any threatening individual or group will be "predicted to death" posthaste.
I haven't followed this thread from the beginning, but I recognize the theme. I read _eons_ ago a short story in which this exact mechanism was used to enforce a leaderless society. Now I'm no economist, nor historian (future or otherwise) but I do vividly remember this story. It was in a science-fiction compilation, as I was very prone to read (Nebula Awards, etc..) in my early days in the military and before.
My question would be: have you ever read a story with this precice theme? The assisns looked like (sorry) Star Wars storm troopers in white, air conditioned suits. They were not anonymous, except that you couldn't see their faces (is that enough?).
The story treated the same (apparently) hypothesis you mention. The 'Assassin's Guild' I think was the title.
Irrelevant to AP since nobody knows anybody, nor what anybody else do.
One of the problems in the model I read about was that the area to be policed was too large to allow an elite minority to cover properly, or even effectively.
Again, irrelevant to AP. This scheme suppose some clan against another (the govt). Re-read Jim Bell's essay and you'll realize that it wouldn't work that way at all.
It was a situation of ratios. To be superior, even with a technological edge, you need numbers. You have to offset the balance somehow. Population control was attempted by the guild in the end as a measure to increase the odds in their favor. This caused an understandably intense reaction with the masses, who were ultimately those being served.
Not in AP. Because the aim when using AP against government or any other entity is not to get rid of it by killing it's members, but rather to get rid of it by scaring any individual that would participate to it.
Another problem was that the technology required for a large coordinated effort required organization of a military nature (rank, etc..). This was necessary due to the myriad of decisions that had to be made.
<Lots of stuff absolutely irrelevant to AP deleted>. Re-read the essay again.
Surveillance was the issue. In order for the Guild to be able to identify a problem, an immense amount of surveillance was required. Again the technology and the infrastructure required to support it.
Are you saying that problems are difficults to identify?
The decision had to be made by superiors who were in touch with all the information from all areas under surveillance to make the ultimate decision. There needed to be, effectively, a steering committee to determine if the proposed action was both affordable and warranted.
To Cypherpunks: I did not write the following paragraph. It was probably from Jim Bell, but I only guess. To: Pat Trainor: Ask Jim Bell to send you his paper. I'm sure he will do it wilfully. Pat Trainor wrote:
somebody wrote:
To the eventual outcome. The system's inevitable. Read the essay; it explains why. I'll forward it to you; I assume it's no longer available on your newsfeed.
I wouldn't mind reading it, it sounds a lot like what I'm describing.
They might be wrong. I might be right.
The Assassin's Guild was bought into in phases by the ruling elements of all major powers only after they had all lost their ability to maintain an effective repel borders and the place (earth) was a mess.
Realistically, you can't build from the ashes any faster than anyone else is. And human nature doesn't change because of a new caveat in religion or 'law'. A human will always be a human, regardless of what law they proport to follow or heed.
Thomas Edison tried hundreds of differnet materials to make light bulb filaments before he found one that would work.
Actually he directed experiments! :) But this statement reminded me of the 'Infinite Number of Monkeys' theory, except applied to 'self rule', well, I guess not, well..?
And BTW, we're already all "in fear of our lives." You know, muggings and carjackings. How is my system worse, quantitatively?
Actually, you'll find folks doing the most desparate things in a desparate world. If you try to forge order out of chaos, you quickly find that the order you are trying to enforce feeds the chaos. You create your own increasing difficulty by default. A society (or group of societies) in anarchy will fear order. This, coupled with the fact that you have to create from the same resoucres the masses have access to, makes your efforts incredibly difficult. You will never find a unified agreement among a society that can't feed or cloth itself. If you do, you instantly become what you are telling the people you are trying to prevent. Folks will see through this veil and vanquish such an effort favoring a predictable anarchy over a concerted organized rule.
To change the world you have to understand the rules,
But you don't necessarily have to _follow_ the rules!
That's a good point, and one I think I've shown means that you will always have rules. Sometimes yours, sometimes theirs, if lucky a bit of both.. But they will be there. We are a self-righteous pack-oriented species. We thrive on group individuality! That must be why psychologists make so much money!
The system I've described will work even if only a small proportion of the population uses it, at first. That's what makes it so amazing, really.
Again, I'd appreciate a look at your paper.
Now for the subtle problems pointed out accurately in the Assassin's Guild. As a strategic planner for a living, I have learned to live by a good rule: Make your best estimates for a project's completion, then double them.
A support structure required for the Assassin's Guild required things you would never immediately think of. Support from several areas are required. Remember, you are basically operating a country with soft borders covering all areas, no matter how distant.
For solely the guild's efforts, no others, a few of the things required are:
Manufacturing Fabrication Research & Developement Quality Assurance Medical Clothing Shelter Food Recreation Self-Rule Coordination Information Exchange Communication Information Retrieval Surveillance Commerce Expansion Earth Sciences
The trouble is, each and every one of the above is subject to espionage, revolution, corruption, pranks, etc.. Therefore each must be treated with complete encapsulation within the guild. The only way to exclude interference from within or without, was to closely monitor each and every aspect of the guild's organization. Self-policing.
When you start visualizing what the organization would actually be running (never mind the seemingly impossible task of starting the organization from scratch), it seems a very impractical proposition.
Plus, the guild found all the military stuff laying around pretty useful.. Folks were NOT excited about another police state..
Anyhow, sorry for the long post, but I thought perhaps you'd enjoy the problems the Assassin's Guild had, and compare it to your own model.
later!
pat :)
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