IP: Worth Reading: Fwd from Gary North: Y2K

From: believer@telepath.com Subject: IP: Worth Reading: Fwd from Gary North: Y2K Date: Mon, 05 Oct 1998 09:46:30 -0500 To: believer@telepath.com Forwarded from Gary North: ------------------- By now you know my concern over the Year 2000 Problem: the collapse of the division of labor. As Leonard Read wrote in "I, Pencil," no one knows how to make a pencil. It's too complicated: cut wood, carbon, paint, rubber, metal. A pencil can exist only because the division of labor exists. But if a pencil is too difficult to make, what about replacement parts for a dam? What about an automobile? But could this really happen? Wrong question: How will this not happen? There is not one compliant bank on earth, not one compliant public utility, not one compliant industry. Yet we have only 15 months to go. And in between now and then, worldwide panic will hit, making code-correction very difficult. Also, the latest estimate of embedded chips is 70 billion. The latest estimated failure rate for embedded systems is 10% to 20%. All of our management systems rely on mainframe computers. The people who ran the pre-computer management systems in 1965 have been fired or have retired. The knowledge they had went with them. They were replaced by digital idiot savants. These idiot savants are not flexible. Dustin Hoffman's character in Rainman was a model of flexibility compared to a computer. Computers do exactly what they were programmed to do. They do not listen to reason. They do not hear your screams. Their attitude is best expressed by Rhett Butler as he walked away from Scarlett for the last time. Look ahead. It's Friday, January 14, 2000. You are standing in front of a bank teller. You have stood in line for three hours. There is a line of 200 people behind you. You have your bank statement from last month. It says you have $4,517.22 in your checking account. But your checks have all bounced: "Account closed." Every account is automatically closed after two years of no activity, and your account had no activity from 1/1/1900 (00) to 1/1/1902 (02). Now you want your bounced checks cleared. The teller says, "I'm sorry. Our computer shows the account is closed." "Well, then, re-open it." "Are you making a deposit?" "No." "Then I can't re-open it." Problem: you now have no money. The account is closed. Your printed records are for last month. Maybe you spent all that money on Christmas. She has no idea. "I am not authorized to give you cash." (Well, maybe $200, by government decree.) What are you going to do? It will take many months to fix this for every depositor on earth. The banks will not survive for weeks. She has no authority to veto the computer. Nobody does. There is no alternative management system in place that will enable a bank's employees to fix the accounts and clear all checks and credit card transactions. All banks must stop accepting checks and credit card accounts until there is a way to clear the accounts. There is no way. Their management systems must be redesigned to go back to 1965, all over the world: a paper and ink system. But there is no time to do this. This would take years even if all the banks stayed up. But they will all go down. Any bank that is forced out of the capital markets for a week will go bankrupt -- two weeks, for sure. But if they are all out of the capital markets, there will be no capital markets. That means Western civilization will shut down: "Account closed." "Our computer is down." These four words may kill you. Literally. If you do not have financial reserves that are not electronic, these four words will strip you of your ability to buy and sell. And not just you: everyone. The division of labor will collapse. How will society produce a pencil? Or repair parts for a power generation plant? Think ahead. Sit down with a pen and paper. (It's good practice for the future.) Think of every situation in which your life would be disrupted by the words, "Our computer is down." If you could not get your immediate problem solved because of these for words, for just 60 consecutive days, what would happen to you? Think this through. Which local systems are threatened? Here is a preliminary list: banks, paychecks, supermarkets, drug stores (all prescriptions on computer), the water/sewer company, the electric utility, telephone service. If you lack imagination here, rent The Trigger Effect. Now let's move outward toward local emergency institutions. Think of the another missing 9 and two more 1's: 9-1-1. The police, the fire department, hospitals, ambulances. The phones may or may not be down, but 911 switchboards are only rarely compliant today. Now let's move farther outward into the world of capital: money market fund, mutual fund, pension fund, bond fund, insurance, second mortgages, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, IRS refunds. You just lost your retirement money. If your home burns down, you'll not get a replacement unless you have gold coins or cash to buy a used one. If you die, your wife will get nothing that isn't close at hand, i.e., in hand. "Our computer is down." This phrase will serve nicely as an epitaph for our civilization. Only if the computers don't go down, and also don't make bad calculations, can the West avoid this epitaph. But if they are not fixed, they will go down or go nuts. A BILLION LIVES LOST, IF THINGS GO FAIRLY WELL I have been writing for over a year on this with all the skill I have. I simply cannot get it across to all of you, or even to most of you. I am never at a loss for words, but I am at a loss for persuasion. I have been unable to persuade the vast majority of my readers, after almost two years, that if the division of labor collapses, we will lose millions of lives. Joe Boivin, who was the y2k director for Canada's Imperial Bank and Commerce until he quit, estimates that a billion people will die in 2000. He limits his discussion to the third world. I think we could lose half a billion in the urban West. Unthinkable? All right, show me how any large city will survive if the power goes off for 60 days, all railroad deliveries of grain and coal stop, all gasoline station pumps shut down, and there are no banks. Go on. I'm serious. Sit down and outline a scenario that will keep an urban population alive without mainframe computers. The army? There are 120 U.S. cities that the government has targeted as vulnerable to cyberwarfare. There are 1.4 million people in the entire U.S. military. Few have any training for riot control and food delivery. The government cannot provide such training without creating a panic. The military is dependent on the civilian communications system. How will 1.4 million untrained military personnel -- including the Navy -- police a destitute population of 60 million urban residents, not counting the suburbs? That's 11,666 people per city. But the large cities will get the lion's share. What about where you live? The bands of arsonists and rioters are loose in your city. What will your police do? I'll tell you: they will stay home if they are not being paid. And if the banks are down, they will not be paid. I know what you're thinking. "They just can't let this happen." What can "they" do to stop it? The United States is short 500,000 to 700,000 mainframe programmers. Roberto Vacca wrote The Coming Dark Age in 1973. He did not forecast y2k. If he had, the book would have been far more persuasive. His point was that our technology has extended beyond what we can understand. I was not impressed because that is true of the free market at all times. This is the genius of the free market. No one understands all of the interconnections, yet we prosper. So, I dismissed the book's thesis. What I did not see, and he did not see, was y2k. We have transferred to digital idiot savants all authority to make decisions that men found either too boring or too complex to make. We removed this decision-making authority from people and delegated it to machines. FROM ANALOGICAL TO DIGITAL AND BACK It's time to talk theology. Cornelius Van Til argued that men must think God's thoughts after Him -- analogically. God is a person. He's also three persons. We are persons. Our universe reflects God's personality. We don't live in an impersonal world. The biblical doctrine of the creation forces us to accept the doctrine of cosmic personalism. Modern computers do not think. They count. But modern man since the Renaissance has believed that number, not God's written revelation, is the touchstone of truth. He has believed that mankind's inability to comprehend (surround mentally) the infinitely complex universe can be compensated for. Man can use numerical formulas to substitute for omniscience. He can take a shortcut to omniscience. He can develop numerical formulas that allow him to control the external world, which is controlled by number. Why a capacity of the mind -- numerical coherence -- should also control the external realm is a great mystery. In fact, as Nobel Prize physicist Eugene Wigner said in a 1960 essay, the effectiveness of number in science is unreasonable. But it does work within creation's limits. Men have sought numerical shortcuts to cosmic knowledge and cosmic power. They have found many shortcuts, and on these shortcuts modern science rests. But then, in the 1950's, programmers took another shortcut -- a digital shortcut. They saved two holes out of 80 in IBM punch cards. This seemingly minor shortcut has brought society to the brink of destruction. We are not lemmings rushing to destruction. We are sheep being driven toward a cliff by idiot savants, to whom we have delegated control over our affairs. Man worships science and its shortcuts. He worships the creations made by his own hands and mind. We will soon find that such idolatry is always deadly. Modern man thinks he has shoved God out of the universe. He has used Darwinism and a theory of vast cosmic impersonal time to remove Him from man's newly acquired domain. Natural selection has replaced God's purpose. Cosmic time has replaced the six-day creation. But now we face the institutional monstrosity of the digital impersonalism of the idiot savants. Computers can count. Can they ever count! But the dates they use after '99 will be wrong. WHAT WILL YOU DO? You should now have a list of services and goods that will no longer be provided if the computers go down. It's a long list. You need a second list. What items must you buy now that can substitute for these lost services? You can't afford to buy them all. There will be a panic to buy such goods next year. It has already begun (e.g., Chinese diesel generators). Where will you get the fuel for a generator? Electricity for a well pump? Propane for a cook stove? Heat in the winter? Think of Montreal last January. But will the computers go down? Senator Robert Bennett said it well on July 14 at a National Press Club speech. If 2000 were the next day, this civilization might collapse. But, he said, we can save it between July 15 and Jan. 1, 2000. To which I reply: How? What is being done, worldwide, to avoid the death of the computers? Not just in the U.S. -- worldwide? Almost nothing. There are not enough skilled programmers. I suppose you get tired of reading about this. I am surely tired of writing it. But until I can no longer mail this newsletter, or until all the computers are fixed in late 1999, I will continue to nag you . . . not to death -- to life. As it stands today, if tomorrow were 2000, we would see the end of this civilization in 60 days. If you think I'm wrong, jot down those life-support systems that are 2000- compliant today. It's an empty list. How will we get from empty to fixed, worldwide, in the next 15 months? This is not a trick question. It's a life-and-death question. Do you have an answer and a contingency plan? Don't wait for leadership on this matter. Leaders are in y2k denial. You must lead. If you won't, who will? You are responsible for you. What will you do? How soon? Sincerely, Gary North ********************************************** To subscribe or unsubscribe, email: majordomo@majordomo.pobox.com with the message: (un)subscribe ignition-point email@address ********************************************** www.telepath.com/believer **********************************************