Black Unicorn <unicorn@schloss.li> writes:
Are these issues not listed currently on the IDEA FUTURES exchange?
Anyone have the URL?
Idea Futures is dead, and the torch has passed to Foresight Exchange (FX), which is at http://www.ideosphere.com/ideosphere/ . You can bet on a number of political issues (US and other), though not (yet) for real money. Bill Clinton re-elected last sold at 89 (out of 100), and Dole beats Clinton last sold at 15. This doesn't track the polls, which typically ask who the potential voter would vote for rather than who they think will win the election. Other issues: Percentage of popular vote to Dem candidate: 47 " " Rep " : 44 " " Other " : 12 Note that there may be an opportunity for arbitrage when numbers don't add up to 100; but I'm simplifying, since there are separate buy and sell bids. Third party candidate gets the most votes : 4 Clinton landslide 20 Dole landslide 4 Democrats retake the House in 96 45 Democrats retake the Senate in 96 30 Percent electoral votes to Democrats 70 President without popular majority 55 Clinton resigns or impeached by end of 96 1 And so on... Jim Gillogly Hevensday, 7 Halimath S.R. 1996, 02:29