Tim wrote: On Saturday, August 25, 2001, at 02:46 PM, Faustine wrote:
...But the ones I really admire are the mathematician-analysts, the hard- science analysts: they tend not to hog the limelight like some of their more voluble counterparts, but their influence is still enormous.
I'd be interesting in hearing whom you think are good examples.
Herman Kahn, Thomas Schelling, John Nash. You already mentioned von Neumann, he was the first to come to mind.
But the typical "mathematician-analyst" coming out of a typical grad program, even a high-reputation grad program, is not going to have "enormous influence." A vanishingly small fraction will, in fact.
Unfortunately, you're probably right. But in an earlier post I brought up an essay entitled 'Intelligence and the Information Revolution' which advocates the creation of analysis programs that suprass old barriers of department and specialty to create what the author termed 'Super Analysts'. If I can find a .pdf copy, I'll post a link, it really is interesting. Given that most all the people on your list and mine are precisely what the author was driving at, I think the "Super Analyst" approach is certainly worth aspiring to. And as far as I've been able to tell, policy analysis PhD programs offer the most flexible way to pursue a multidisciplinary, scientific approach while striking a good balance between the theoretical and the practical. How well this kind of approach will fit in with the contemporary institutional climate remains to be seen, but on an individual level, you have precious little to lose. (yeah, I know: just "time" and "money". I think the potential payoffs make it worth the risk, YMMV.)
Look, while you condemn all the anonymous and pseudonymous posts here, we know zero about who you are, where you are, what you do, except that you're probably some kind of intern who surfs the Net while your employer for the summer is paying you do some kind of study.
Anyone who read my posts carefully probably remembers I already said I'm an assistant research analyst and PhD student. Believe whatever you want; I've said plenty. And in a real sense, it doesn't matter: if my posts are weak, any appeal to credentialism isn't going to make them any stronger.
Do you think you are preparing to have "enormous influence" on policy?
I'm preparing to try.
Do you think the superdupercomputer you say you want to assemble out of old machines will help you in some magical way in this goal?
Of course not, it's a tool like any other. You seem to be trying to extract some kind of entertaining kookery from me that just isn't there.
I know a couple of ex-CIA "mathematician-analysts" who were deemed tops in their classes. One is now headed out to the Bay Area to do something more useful. Another I've lost track of. Neither seems to have had "enormous influence" on policy.
You can have an enormous influence on policy without producing a "single great work" or "grand project" everyone can point to as being influential. I'm hoping that doing work in policy analysis will help put me in a position to make as much of a difference as I can. I'm not fooling myself as to the likelihood of actually succeeding at any of the things I have in mind, but where's the sense in giving up before you ever get started.
It's kind of interesting to see how the field evolved and grew out of the strictly military/operations research stuff in the 50s into what it is now. It's still evolving, which is part of what makes it so exciting. I don't think what I'm doing is any easier than law school, quite the contrary! Maybe it's better to say it *can* be easier than law school--and often is--but doesn't have to be if you're in the right place and have some purpose behind your choices. And I hope I didn't sound too down on studying law. I took a graduate class in constitutional law myself and spent a semester learning to write briefs, getting acquainted with West's Law Finder, etc. just because it's so important. I'd definitely recommend that much to anyone.
The children shall lead us...
I think you misspelled "whippersnappers". ~Faustine.