Phill: On Thu, 6 Jun 1996 hallam@Etna.ai.mit.edu wrote:
circumstances. << It is something like 1 chance in 15 511 210 000 000 000 000 000 000. >> Rubbish, 2^25 is 33,554,432. How do you calculate your figures?
You have one chance in three, of showing a profit, in one trade. For 25 consecutive trades to show a profit it is 1 chance in 3^25. << Slightly lower than my original 25!, which is what the odds are, if the trades have to occur in a specific sequence. >>
If you hit a favourable market for your strategy you can win big.
_If_ is the operative word there.
Problem is that after a while others are likley to cotton on to your strategy.
Or in Hillary's case, no strategy at all, just pure, dumb luck that she caught all those successfull trades, and then quit. Can anybody replicate her trades, on any futures market, and gain anything close to the success she had? xan jonathon grafolog@netcom.com ********************************************************************** * * * Opinions expressed don't necessarily reflect my own views. * * * * There is no way that they can be construed to represent * * any organization's views. * * * ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ * * * http://members.tripod.com/~graphology/index.html * * * ***********************************************************************