At 07:24 AM 1/17/96 -0500, Timothy C. May wrote:
(Ironically, I brought up the new book, "The Winner Take All Society," at the last Cypherpunks meeting. No time to discuss it here, but it confirms my strong belief that we are heading for a economy in which a shrinking fraction of workers have really valuable things to contribute, and a growing fraction of the population does not.
The book suggests that small differences in perceived quality (or even 'luck') result in a big difference in marketplace results (whether for product or labor). The title is a bit misleading. It should be "The Winner-Take-Lots Society" since it does not say that non-winners are left with nothing (that thesis is promoted in other recent works of fiction.) These GenX whining tomes and commie sociology texts are just the latest examples of the old automation-will-cause-mass-unemployment so-we-need-Socialism-to-feed the-unemployed arguments. So far, a higher percentage of Americans are in paid employment than ever before in history. Likewise once you factor out changes in the workforce mix, similarly situated workers continue to rake in more "total compensation" than ever before. Remember comparative advantage. Just because Tim can apply his knowledge of physics to the chip fab process better than anyone and make big bucks, doesn't mean that everyone else is not needed. Even Tim can't be everywhere at once. There is plenty for us lesser lights to do. Tim himself certainly purchases the goods and labor of many other people. It may be true that a disproportionate share of the gains accrue to "the elite" but if everyone else is vastly richer than their forebearers, what difference does it make? That is the likely effect of the nanotechnolgy revolution of which the computer revolution is just the first part. "The End of Work" is a real world example of the "Imminent Death of Usenet" threads that wander their way throughout the Net. DCF "If everyone is so poor these days, why have air travel, dining out, and retail floor space all tripled since the Carter administration?"