LOCAL Saturday 12 December 1998 'Martial law' rushed for Y2K chaos Report warns government to be ready to invoke federal Emergencies Act By David Pugliese The Ottawa Citizen The federal government should consider invoking the Emergencies Act, the successor to the War Measures Act, if the millennium bug causes widespread chaos, according to newly obtained government documents. The report, by the Year 2000 contingency planning group of Emergency Preparedness Canada, calls for orders and regulations for the Emergencies Act to be ready by the end of March. "In the worst case, we should consider the Emergencies Act a potential source of special powers," urge documents prepared by government in July and August and obtained by the Citizen under the Access to Information Act. "Among the activities that must be done to meet the problems resulting from Y2000 failures is development of relevant emergency orders and regulations required for the invocation of emergency provisions under the Emergencies Act." Federal departments are to identify what emergency orders would be needed in their areas of responsibility to deal with a countrywide disaster caused by the millennium bug. Those orders and regulations should have been in place in 1988 -- when the Emergencies Act was brought in to replace the War Measures Act -- but federal departments failed to develop them. While the lack of emergency orders and regulations among federal departments would not have prevented the Emergencies Act from being invoked, it would have meant that any federal response to a large-scale crisis would not have run smoothly. Defence Minister Art Eggleton, who is in charge of Emergency Preparedness Canada, will also be issued with a step-by-step guidebook on actions to be taken in a "major or catastrophic emergency" caused by the millennium bug, according to the report. That book will include all the documents needed and the names of provincial officials who should be consulted before the federal government invokes the Emergencies Act. The War Measures Act was last invoked by Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau on Oct. 16, 1970, to deal with the FLQ terrorist threat -- the first and only peacetime implementation of such sweeping powers. The Front de Liberation du Quebec had kidnapped British diplomat James Cross, who was later released, and Liberal cabinet minister Pierre Laporte, who was slain. During the crisis, Canadian troops were ordered to protect public figures, and 497 possible suspects were arbitrarily rounded up and arrested in an attempt to break the FLQ cell structure. Defence spokesman Maj. John Blakeley said the process now being put in place is simply part of prudent planning to deal with the millennium bug and does not automatically mean the Emergencies Act will be enacted. "The question of whether it will be required or not is one that will have to be determined at the time," Maj. Blakeley said. "Basically, this is saying, 'If it gets to that stage, is everything ready?' " Maj. Blakeley said all scenarios have to be considered, including the most unlikely one: widespread major problems caused by the millennium bug. He added that the Defence department is confident it will be ready to handle any emergencies associated with the computer glitch. But the Auditor General has continually warned that the federal government is lacking in its emergency response capabilities. Among the criticisms over the years: - In 1997, the Auditor General voiced concern that not enough was being done to deal with an emergency caused by a major oil or chemical spill; - In 1992, the Auditor General repeated warnings that the government had still not created an emergency program to deal with an earthquake. The Auditor General's office says those plans are still undeveloped. - In 1989, the Auditor General pointed out that the emergency orders and measures needed by federal departments for the Emergencies Act had not been mapped out. Nine years later, that remains the case. Jim Hanson, a defence analyst and retired Canadian Army brigadier general, said the Emergencies Act contains the same sweeping powers to deal with unrest and civil emergencies. But he said it is likely such measures are intended more to give powers to civilian agencies, such as police forces, in case there are problems from the millennium bug. "It wouldn't take much under the existing National Defence Act or the 'aid to civil powers' provisions to put military personnel on the streets." Some computer analysts believe the millennium bug, also known as the Year 2000 or Y2K problem, will cause only minor disruptions. But others predict it will trigger widespread disruptions in computers that control everything from hydro and financial systems to air-traffic control. The problem centres on the fact that the internal counters of computers will read the year 2000 simply as 00. That could cause them to crash as they misread the 00 for the year 1900. Several months ago the Canadian Forces were told to prepare for the biggest peacetime deployment of troops ever in case computer failures caused by the Year 2000 problem disrupted key services. The plan, dubbed Operation Abacus, also involves the development of rules governing the use of force by soldiers in case they are called upon to assist police in dealing with emergency incidents. The reports obtained by the Citizen predict the first wave of computer failures could hit Canada on Sept. 9, 1999, because systems might have problems handling that date sequence, which is 9-9-99. The Defence department will activate a national co-ordination centre to handle emergency response to the millennium bug the day before that date, according to the documents. As part of its preparations, the national co-ordination centre will also run several exercises to test military readiness. In April, federal and provincial agencies in Quebec and Ontario will conduct a three-day training scenario involving a nuclear emergency -- a major test and evaluation of how the federal government and provinces can respond to a large-scale emergency that might result from the millennium bug, according to the Access documents. In the reports, military officials also raise concern that their ability to help out if the millennium bug causes widespread problems relies heavily on Canada's electrical, transportation, food and water and sewage systems having their own Year 2000 problems under control: "The ability of the (Canadian Forces) to provide civil assistance is highly dependent on the state of preparedness of these infrastructure items since the CF, like everyone else, is highly dependent on smooth delivery of these supplies and services," the documents state. "Without aggressive action in these industrial and service sectors, the (Canadian Forces) may not be able to make a significant impact across the nation as a force of last resort." Military officials point out that more than 16,000 troops were needed to deal with the effects of the ice storm that hit Ontario and Quebec this year. But the millennium bug, the report states, "has the potential of creating a demand orders of magnitude greater than this, which are well beyond the CF's capability to respond." Defence officials called for "aggressive and preventive actions" now to reduce the Year 2000 risk to a more manageable level. The military will have about 32,000 of its personnel dedicated to Operation Abacus, with thousands more available if needed. In November, the Commons Public Accounts committee questioned whether the Canadian Forces would be able to deal with countrywide problems that might be caused by the millennium bug. But several weeks later, a report by Auditor General Denis Desautels found that the critical systems the Defence department needs should computer foul-ups create civil chaos are largely ready. These included systems that support the movement of troops and supplies and handling of communications. Copyright 1998 Ottawa Citizen