At 8:16 PM -0700 6/9/97, Jim Choate wrote:
... The actual cycle is much more complicated than Tim is alluding to here.
I agree. I was mainly reacting to Igor's simplistic model from Economics that a tax on something will decrease consumption of it. There are many, many other issues. I didn't even mention one of the most basic ones: no one expects to get caught. Thus, the increased penalties do indeed increase the averaged costs of producing child porn. But a rule of thumb is that markets will thrive when: selling price > production cost Or, selling price - production cost = profits Sellers of illegal mateials will factor in their chances of getting caught, the punishment if caught, etc., as another part of the production cost. So, selling price - (production costs of item plus chance of being caught times chance of being convicted times punishment if convicted) = profits And so on. The higher selling price of a more restricted item may in fact cause more sellers to enter the market. This was Lucky's point. It's all very complicated. And strong crypto, of course, is on the verge of making the risk of getting caught near zero. You know the rest. --Tim May There's something wrong when I'm a felon under an increasing number of laws. Only one response to the key grabbers is warranted: "Death to Tyrants!" ---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---- Timothy C. May | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money, tcmay@got.net 408-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero W.A.S.T.E.: Corralitos, CA | knowledge, reputations, information markets, Higher Power: 2^1398269 | black markets, collapse of governments. "National borders aren't even speed bumps on the information superhighway."