Sarad AV wrote:
We say that, we-don't know or it wont be random. Then we say that we must see roughly equal numbers of heads and tails for large trials. Thats what I fail to understand. its the difference between any one test (which will be completely unpredictable) and probabilities (where you know that, unless there is a weighting in force, the odds of any one of n options coming up will be 1 in n, so you would expect to see roughly equal numbers of each)
as an analogy - imagine a horse race where all five horses are roughly equal in fitness and rider skill. a bookie would give equal odds on each (not 1 in 5, as he has to make a profit, but no horse would be "worth" more than another). You would *expect* that, if the race was run enough times, each horse would run about a fifth of them - but that won't help you predict the result of any one race in particular, nor would it be impossible for one horse to win all the races, purely from luck.