On Friday, May 1, 2015, 2:31:49 PM PDT, <dan@geer.org> wrote:
    The (my)
   speech I cited is what I had to say on the record, and is
   the best that I've (currently) got; I'll revisit when time
   permits.  Here, though, is Paul Krugman in a similar vein
   three weeks ago today:
   [PK] Paul Krugman, "Apple and the Self-Surveillance State," New
   York Times, 10 April 2015
   krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/04/10/apple-and-the-self-surveillance-st
   ate
   > --dan
   Paul Krugman is that fool who predicted an economic crash after the
   election.  He quickly modified this prediction,
   [1]https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/the-long-haul/
   but he carefully hedged by saying:
   "But it’s important not to expect this to happen right away. There’s a
   temptation to predict immediate economic or foreign-policy collapse;
   I [2]gave in to that temptation Tuesday night, but quickly realized
   that I was making the same mistake as the opponents of Brexit
   (which [3]I got right). So I am retracting that call, right now. It’s
   at least possible that bigger budget deficits will, if anything,
   strengthen the economy briefly. More detail in Monday’s column, I
   suspect."
   The problem is the definition of "briefly".  Months?  Years?  Economies
   tend to be cyclic, which means that until the next recession occurs,
   Krugman will say he's right, and when that recession occurs, he will
   still say he's right.
                  Jim Bell

References

   1. https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/the-long-haul/
   2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout
   3. https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/the-macroeconomics-of-brexit-motivated-reasoning/