On Wed, Oct 28, 2015 at 9:59 AM, Georgi Guninski
   <[1]guninski@guninski.com> wrote:

     I mean:  I don't trust any actor on any market.
     If more than half of the actors decide to cooperate,
     they trivially win in this case.
     If the NSA decides to fuck a prediction, they can buy
     ether and their bots will do the rest.

   Does it matter whether the crowds can do accurate predictions if the
   main purpose is for special actors with the skills and interest to be
   encouraged to create outcomes that are being wagered upon. I've not
   looked closely at Augur but back in Cpunk days stumped for PMs that
   included forwards, similar to financial futures, but where the
   participants could create contracts which narrowed the prediction
   windows to months, weeks or even days within the greater expiry period
   (e.g., Dec. 31, 2015) but were not required to specify which month,
   week or day . By enabling such sub-contract narrowing the benefit for
   an accurate prediction scales with its temporal ratio with the general
   contract thus increasing leverage and benefit to special actors.
   Steve

References

   1. mailto:guninski@guninski.com